I believe we have to urgently prepare for an election – and want to outline a few compelling reasons why I feel one is very likely.
While some media pundits and Green Party bloggers suggest an election is unlikely – such as Jim Johnston’s blog on this site (http://www.green.ca/en/node/3905) – I'm putting forward arguments as to why it’s very likely.
The election just got more likely with the release of a Strategic Counsel poll on Feb 20 showing the Conservatives 12% ahead of the Liberals. The poll also shows the Green Party as the third most popular party in Canada at 12% -- tied with the NDP. Below as an attachment are the highlights of the research in my opinion -- available for download. Or you can get the full poll at http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-02-19%20GMCTV%20F...
The bottom line is this: being unprepared is to be vulnerable. We must plan for the election to be triggered in March 2007. If we are given a reprieve – great – but we must be prepared. I know bloggers like Jim Johnston believe in being prepared too.
Reasons why the Conservatives want an election:
1) The Liberal leadership candidates are still millions of dollars in debt collectively from their leadership election. These debts must be retired by law, and so the Liberal leadership candidates are competing with the party itself for financial resources. The Liberal Party used to rely on large donors to fund its’ operations. In 2005 the Liberals received more $5,200 donations than all the other parties combined and multiplied by two! The Conservatives Accountability Act limited donations to a central party to $1,100 a year. This was aimed squarely at the Liberal’s fundraising.
By contrast the Conservatives have focused on direct mail and building their party lists relying on more donors at smaller average amounts. As a result the Conservatives have raised four times as much as the Liberals in 2007.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Amount . . . . . . . Elections Canada
Party . . . . . . . . . . . . . Raised . . . . . . . . Rebates Rec’d
Conservatives . . . .$17,012,049 . . . . . . .$10,218,122
Liberals. . . . . . . . . . $4,906,215 . . . . . . . $8,517,047
NDP . . . . . . . . . . . . .$3,980,088 . . . . . . . $4,923,793
Bloc Québécois . . . . . $465,295 . . . . . . . $2,953,216
Green Party . . . . . . .$1,005,631 . . . . . . . $1,262,640
Source: Elections Canada and Hill Times http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/f...
The good news for the Green Party is that for the first time ever we raised more than $1 million in 2007 – which was more than double what the Bloc raised.
2) Dealing Death Blow to Dion. Pundits point to the fact that no party in majority territory and that all the old line, traditional parties have seen their support fall since the 2006 election – and cite this as a reason to expect no election. This thinking is deeply flawed.
The Conservatives want an election just to bankrupt the Liberals and deal a death blow to Dion. Parties don’t receive their 50% central party campaign subsidy for up to 9 months following an election. With the Liberals already in debt from their leadership race their December 2006 leadership race, the Liberal Party is going to have to borrow $15,000,000 to run their election campaign. The Conservative goal would be to win another minority.
A loss for the Liberals would deal a death blow to Dion’s leadership – and if not a death blow then it would do deadly damage to his leadership.
If Dion resigned it would throw the party back into another leadership race that would draw millions of dollars from what would go to the party to leadership candidates.
A leadership race would pose unique challenges for the Liberals. Leadership candidates by definition have to distinguish themselves from each other – the Liberal message in this period would seem confused, uncertain – while by contrast the Conservatives with Harper’s authoritarian, micro-managing focus would seem consistent.
If Dion didn’t resign there would be many knives out for him. Either way it would throw the party into chaos and disarray for at least another year.
Meanwhile the Conservative would replenish their financial resources, focus on governing the country, and wait for the most opportune time to call an election – perhaps even engineer a crisis before the Liberals selected anew leader.
As a Hill Times article points out today, the Conservatives have put $27-million in their coffers in 2007, have a 17,000 square-foot state-of-the-art operational campaign war room outfitted with a TV studio, 75% of their candidates are nominated and their campaign ads are in the can.
3) Candidates Nominated. Another election readiness alarm is the number of candidates nominated. It’s clear both the Conservative – expect and are ready for an election.
Party .. . . . . . . . . . . . . %
Bloc Québécois . . . . . .85%
Conservatives . . . . . .81%
Liberals. . . . . . . . . . . 70%
Green Party . . . . . . . 55%
NDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Sources: http://www.punditsguide.ca/2008/02/comings-and-goings-to-ings-and-fro-in... -- this by the way is a great blog with info on parties' nominations. I talked with the Director of Organizing for the Bloc on Friday and the 40 MPs have their seats protected and they are only searching for 10 candidates. So this puts them as the most prepared of all parties -- which is logical as they the fewest ridings relative to the number of seats they run in.
Here's the link to a great story on this http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=38a9b4e9-6b3e-4ac0-81a7-0048a9a0b0b2
The good news for the Green Party is we have never had as many candidates nominated pre-writ as we do now -- 171 -– and 2) we are ahead of the NDP. The bad news is we are behind the Conservatives and Liberals.
4) Momentum. Elections generate their own momentum which in some cases becomes inevitable. Everyone books their campaign busses. The planes, orders the signs.
5) In a Minority Nobody is in Charge and Nobody Really Knows. In a minority situation thing can change very fast.
6) Leadership. The Conservatives have been hammering at one thing since Dion was election. Leadership. They have run nasty attack ads ad nausea. And surprise, surprise on the leadership questions in polling Dion has at times tracked below Jack Layton. This is leading to two things 1) the Conservatives will have a whole campaign aimed at leadership and hope to deal a death blow to Dion – and 2) It has given Jack Layton and the NDP illusions of being able to replace the Liberals as the opposition. This has led Layton and the NDP to commit to spending the full $18.5 million spending limit the first ever for the NDP. The only good news here for the Green Party is the NDP is the most inefficient political party in Canada in terms of turning their spending into votes. In the 2006 election the NDP had to spend $5.22 to win each vote whereas the Green Party was at $1.37 and in the Ontario
7) The US Economy is Wobbling Badly and May Tank. This in turn would have a cascading effect in Canada – and Harper may want to go to the polls while things are more rosy.
8) Sastisfaction with Prime Minister Harper’s government is surprisingly strong. From a Montreal Gazette article: But satisfaction in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government remains high - 55 per cent across the country - while Liberal leader Stéphane Dion is at the bottom of the pack when Canadians are asked who would be the best prime minister.
Harper leads when Canadians are asked who would be the best prime minister. Nationally, Harper's score is 32 per cent, compared with NDP leader Jack Layton at 18 per cent. Dion sits at 15. Source: http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=2b17feac-a048-4...
Signs we are About to Enter an Election
I really, really want to stress that we have to go into high election alert. The party has to move into the highest state of election readiness possible asap. The good news is that the party has never been more prepared at the grass roots – we’ve never had more candidates nominated pre-writ than we do now. But we have to get ready for the government to fall in March.
Please, please, please get every nomination possible underway ASAP. The only exception is where there is a strong reason not to – and we cited the case of Ottawa Centre -- where Elizabeth wants to make sure the riding is kept open for David Chernushenko.
Signs Conservatives are Preparing
1. Conservatives have printing Thousands of election signs. At Lakeshore Printing, Jeff Brownridge, saw thousands upon thousands of Conservative signs being printed when he was in ordering signs for Chris Tindal’s by-election campaign. The company admitted to him that the Cons have placed their order.
2. Lobbyist Quits jobs to go on political staff of Conservatives for Jay Hill on the Hill. Yaroslav Baran, who was lobbyist at Earnscliffe Strategy Group, he deregistered as a lobbyist in late January and quit his job. He joined Conservative House leader Jay Hill's office as his new chief of staff, clearing the way for his key organizational involvement in the campaign paving his way to take up running communications in the Conservatives' war room as he has done in the previous two campaigns. So Conservatives ban on lobbyists in their war room won't affect Baran. Source: http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=3fe738ae-748d-4...
3. The Conservative strategy has been to dare the Liberals to bring the government down. In the last session they put forward a number of confidence motions. The Liberals have backed down and are appearing weak – but you can only cry wolf so many times – and when the Liberal strategist have been hammered enough they’ll pull the plug on the government.
Signs that Liberals are Preparing
One of our campaign managers has found out from a counterpart that the Liberals plan to vote against the Conservatives on at least one issue of confidence – can’t say which – but the government could very well fall.
Sign that the NDP is Preparing
From the Hill Times article cited above: "NDP Leader Jack Layton is holding conference calls with nominated candidates on a daily basis and senior campaign staffers are holding conference call strategy sessions every day. More than 100 staffers are expected to work in the NDP campaign headquarters during the election."
There are many other indications that there will be an election – but can’t reveal the insights for fear of compromising our sources – so we are sworn to silence. Mums the word.
While some people might say – “Oh I just saw something on the front page of the Globe today where Bob Rae was urging Dion not to bring the government down and force an election.”
The situation will the government fall/won’t it is tailor made for getting media – this story is more about Bob Rae getting a headline above the fold on the front page of the Globe to help him in Toronto Centre. Why was it Rae who urged Dion and not Ignatieff? Simple this is a ruse to get front page publicity for Rae -- it's so transparent. But it's not about the election what's really behind it is Rae needing the publicity -- because there are a lot of Liberals in the riding who are not so committed to voting for Rae. There is a reason after all that he didn't win the leadership of the Liberal Party.
Every nomination that is ready to go should go now asap – unless there is a strong reason not to.