Byelection Blast! Two campaigns triple support; two increase it by 50%; over 10% of voters cast Green ballots
The Green Party's four by-elections candidates and their campaign teams exceeded all expectations! Two by-elections tripled the level of support from the 2006 general election and two increased Green Party support by 50%! No other party can claim these advances.
The party won 10.2% of all votes cast in the by-elections. (85,375 votes were cast and the Green Party candidates collectively won more than 8,700 votes) -- more than doubling the Green Party's support in these ridings from the 2006 general election!
In the urban centres -- Toronto and Vancouver -- the Green Party won 11.2% of the vote.
Trends: GPC on the Rise
The by-election results highlight the continuing trend made clear by Harris Decima's most recent poll on March 4, 2008. Below is the firm's trailing three-poll-average, from January 2005 to March 2008 showing the GPC rising from 5% to 12% while the Bloc has fallen from a high of 14% to 8% and the NDP has fallen from a high of 24% to 14%.
The GPC's rise continues unabated. This highlights the continuing trend of polling companies showing the Green Party ahead of the NDP -- see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3149 or in a 'virtual tie' with the NDP -- as in this case, as both parties are within the margin of error. In the two Toronto races -- when you add up the Green Party result in both ridings the Greens won more votes than the NDP's combined support.
Greens Draw Support from Across the Political Spectrum:
In Toronto Centre both the NDP and Conservative vote fell while the Green Party's support grew dramatically.
Toronto Centre
Toronto Centre candidate Chris Tindal almost tripled the percentage vote to 14% from the 5% result in the 2006 general election!
Meanwhile the NDP vote was almost cut in half from 24% in 2006 to 14% while the Conservatives fell from 18% to 12.6%. At 1:15 am in the morning, the Green Party was just 36 votes out of second place just behind the NDP. It's been a see saw all night for second place. We'll have to wait till final numbers come out to see if this changes.
The Toronto Centre campaign is all the more impressive given that Chris Tindal was running against Bob Rae – a former Premier of Ontario – and Liberal Party leadership contestant.
See Chris' election night speech at http://www.christindal.ca/2008/03/18/the-results/
See Chris' victory blog at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/chris-tindal/victory
And see Campaign Manager Jeff Brownridge's blog at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/4176 which makes the essential point that the Green Party is really shaking up Canadian politics!
And this final blog is killer funny as it reveals the high tech secret of the success in Toronto Centre http://thewingnuterer.blogspot.com/2008/03/hi-tech...
Vancouver Quadra
Vancouver Quadra Candidate Dan Grice was at 14% – almost tripling the 5% vote the party won in the 2006 federal election. Dan and the team ran an excellent campaign.
The team focused on canvassing, the virtual phone bank and in the last few days main streeting. The results are all the more impressive given that the Green Party is within 1% of the NDP and the Vancouver Quadra race was a very, very tight one between the Conservatives and Liberals (just 151 vote margin of victory).
Read Dan Grice's victory blog at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/4172
For photos from the campaign see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/news/03.16.2008
For a great blog about the experience of the last week of the Vancouver Quadra campaign read Mark Kersten's post at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/4175
Willowdale
In Willowdale, GPC candidate Lou Carcasole increased the GPC vote by 50% to win six per cent of the vote, placing third ahead of the NDP. Congratulations Lou!
The NDP support fell from more than 11% in 2006 to less than 5%. This makes Lou's 50% increase all the more impressive.
The Liberals increased their vote by 7% while the Conservatives increased by 1%.
With Toronto Transit stations in the riding Lou’s campaign team reached thousands of voters with Green literature! Well done.
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
In this riding the Green Party was late off the starting blocs, nominating our candidate Robin Orr just before the close of nominations deadline. But even as such Robin increased the Green Party support by 50%.
Hundreds if not thousands of Aborignal voters may have been disenfranchised because of new rules brought in by the Conservatives regarding ID requirements to vote. More on this later.
By-elections Served as Campaign Schools
The Toronto Centre was an excellent campaign focusing on identifying Green Party support and we had a great get out the vote (GOTV) effort. We pioneered new IT systems that are going to help in the general election and new campaigning tactics and techniques.
Vancouver Quadra like Toronto Centre served as a campaign school for Vancouver and the Lower mainland in BC. The campaign focused used the new voter ID system and the virtual phone bank.
You can download the entire Harris Decima study at http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/070309E...
To see the final update on the preliminary by-election results go to http://enr.elections.ca
For historical results you can go to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Centre
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver_Quadra
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willowdale_%28elector...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desneth%C3%A9%E2%80%9...
- Jim Harris's blog
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Comments
Real results confirm / exceed polls
Another great piece of news is that if you take the average of the by election results, we managed to pretty much match the 12% in our latest national polls.
That means that the poll results showing us more than doubling in the last 2 years are now backed up by real election numbers. Include the LNC results for Elizabeth and we are doing even better in real results than we are in polls.
Ard Van Leeuwen (Dufferin-Caledon)
Ard Van Leeuwen (Dufferin-Caledon, ON)
The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada.
on the more serious side
It is in no national nor GPC interest to see NDP sink (even if many head GPC-ward).
Seriously low turnouts one hopes are explained by the season (but nevertheless reflect desperate apathy).
No sign of Cons. overthrow (just major parties' stasis to national detriment).
Some enormous funds spent for scant absolute increase (notwithstanding educative value).
All point to the urgency of electoral reform
Perhaps Libs. will have an ambiguous result go in their favour if esp. Rae can prove to be a standout Commons performer, if he has not overly mellowed. But even still, it's hard to see the 1/4-1/3 of our fellow Canadians move away from Cons. horrible as they are. Expect a late spring election, with a one-man party vs. a Lib. team of superiors (which assemblage owes much to the unfortunate Martin & his philosophic predilection for higher calibre people). Don't rule out NDP either, they're set to gamble away their $ accumulation, which might have a net zero effect on parliament. If GPC draws near or even with them despite the expenditure, then might they be finally sensibly open to constructive dialogue with Greens.
The most important accomplishment of GPC has been to re-interest & re-engage people in our political process. Its policies will be & have been in eventual good measure taken up by others. For this to happen more expeditiously, and above all for a fairer range of effective voices to be heard in making the best of the best of our Canadian heritage, GPC should strongly focus on electoral reform in a likely spring election, being fairly open about actual approach. The moment is perfect for this to not appear self-serving, but rather serving national interest. A successful debate appearance by Elizabeth would doubtless boost our % a few points, but this at this point is insufficient. It is also to be recommended that GPC campaign as I expect Libs. to do, as a team, making prominent the host of notables our leader has wonderfully managed to attract.
An analysis from all sides
There is a pretty good analysis of the election results, and what that might mean for various parties at the blog site Idealist Pragmatist - http://idealisticpragmatist.blogspot.com/2008/03/r...
Jim Johnston,
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Opinions expressed are my own.
The Green Party beat the NDP in the Ontario by-elections
Adding up all the Ontario by-election votes:
GPC 4,588
NDP 4,383
This confirms what the polls have been showing:
The GPC is ahead of the NDP in Ontario!!!!
Great Addition Ariel -- Thanks for Thinking of This!
Ariel
Thank you, thank you, thank you for adding this!
Yes, it's absolutely true -- the Green Party won more votes than the NDP in the Toronto by-elections. This highlighted what polling companies have been finding see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3615
Jim
Great blog
A great blog to read on this is Jeff Brownridge's at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/4176
Jeff was Chris Tindal's campaign manager in Toronto Centre -- and tremendous credit is due to him for this fantastic result.
In it he also shares a link which reveals the secret of the Toronto Centre success -- there goes Jeff giving away all the party's secrets. What can cha do?!!
Killer Funny: NDP blames powerful Green Machine for Rise of GPC
From: Elizabeth May
Sent: Tue 3/18/2008 5:00 PM
Subject: Want to hear something funny?
A CP reporter said the NDP explanation of us doing so well was that we "threw everything we had at these four ridings ".. I almost laughed. I said in the riding where we came in ahead of the NDP we sent a 22 year old volunteer intern to help Lou. I explained we had not funded these campaigns from the national party and they ran on what they could raise locally. I said To Centre had a lot of Jim Harris's time and Adriane Carr did a lot to help Dan...BUT it was not a case of out-spending the NDP. People just don't like the negativity of NDP campaigns.
E
----------------
From: Jim Harris
Sent: Tue 3/18/2008 5:07 PM
Subject: RE: Want to hear something funny?
Killer funny -- I guess the Green Party central machine is mighty and powerful and something that is greatly feared by the NDP.
I guess the NDP didn't try hard in these by elections and their central party structure is weak and anemic.
do these guys actually follow the logical extension of what they say?
Killer funny!
Jim
NDP spin: Greens invested vast resources in the by-elections
NDP terrified by the rise of the Green Party and falling NDP support claim the Green Party invested vast resources in these by-elections. See for instance http://www.macleans.ca/canada/wire/article.jsp?con...
This really makes me laugh -- all the campaigns were run on what was locally raised in the ridings. Simple.
It's the green values, platform, issues that are attracting voters -- and we're focusing on politics 101 -- identifying supporters and ensuring they vote!
Toronto Centre wedged between two supposed NDP "strongholds"
Toronto Centre is wedged between Toronto Danforth where NDP leader Jack Layton holds a seat currently and Trinity Spadina where Olivia Chow holds her seat.
So the fact that the NDP vote plummeted by 10% -- from 24% in the 2006 election to 14% on March 17, 2008 -- while it is wedged between the two "strongholds" of the NDP -- highlights the fall of the NDP all the more.
So I guess the NDP "strongholds" aren't that strong.
Of course NDP spin doctors now say it's because the Green Party threw everything at these by-elections (not true) -- all the money raised for all four campaigns was only raised within the boundaries of the ridings.
*ahem* I'm 20
*ahem* I'm 20
-Moe Berrigan
(worked on Willowdale campaign)
slippery slide the new Layton dance
Greetings all,
I watched CBC today with Jack Layton on the show "Politics".
If any here get the chance to see that here....its worth it!
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/index.html#ondemand
And look at Tuesdays show (march 18th)
My thoughts were of wrangling this big fresh water fish fresh out of water with my bare hands and with it all full of sliminess as it just slip slided all around my hands.
Layton has his black belt spin degree no doubt.
I enjoyed it immensely as someone recently from the Now Done Party
I didn't know how many times one could actually divert the same question asked that many times and I commend the CBC Politics shows host .....Bravo
Sadly I know after 4 years of it that a dart maybe the only remedy to actually help to actually pin him down for an answer worth listening to haha.(joke for the political hypochondriacs)
Spin wont win voters.
No matter how good.
The good of the country just improved over night with our fine combined effort yesterday as I saw Mr Dion explain this morning on the CBC.
I am proud to be Green today! So very proud.
Thank you all for what has now been done!
Cheers
http://ridings.greenparty.ca/article285.html?&MMN_...
juror.ca
endprohibition@telus.net
How much money did each campaign spend?
This info has to be reported to Elections Canada anyway, so it's not a secret.
Can anyone tell me approx. how much was raised and spent in each of the four campaigns?
how much
from my comment at http://www.rabble.ca/babble/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get... :
[80K, someone there thought]
On the GPC website in late Feb. it was claimed that already by then >$50K local moneys had been raised (Rosedale is in there, by the way). How much was spent I don't know, but the majority spent is to be returned for having breached 10%.
Still, it is hard to claim that these moneys were well spent except as in an educative & preparatory way for Greens. Esp. given the tiny turnout, I'd wince to calculate the $/vote, even more to figure $ per vote over what would have been had by doing little spending, ie just riding on GPC popularity.
I am not negating their huge effort, in fact I've congratulated Tindal & actually went out canvassing with him for a few hours. He is an excellent example of what keeps me interested in GPC, youthful dedication, sincerity, energy & intelligence...NDP should seriously ask why such a fellow could not be drawn to them. (Never mind me.) But about the $, since so much was actually raised in the riding, if that is not an indication of political health & that NDP should quit the grosser partisanship & figure what as experienced dissenters they can do to help turn it all for the better in our country by working with these hopeful people...
and just now from http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gpc-members/message/... :
On CBC Radio's Ontario Today, well-known guest Judy Rebick calls
on NDP & GPC to start talking & maybe co-operating, &
praises Elizabeth for authenticity in a politician.
dv
yrk ctr
Use it or Lose it -- Fundrasing in By-elections
If a local campaign can raise $50,000 for a by-election but chooses not to that's fine -- but the marjority of money would only have been raised because of the by-election.
When donating up to $400 you get 75% of that back off your federal taxes payable. So donating $400 only costs $100. If you pay taxes you would have had to pay $300 to Mr. Harper for his priorities -- which we all know -- like increasing the troops in Afghanistan and subsidizing oil and gas interests in Alberta.
So if there hadn't been a by-election the local party would not have generated this excitement or raised this amount -- and donors would have had to give 75% of their donations to Mr. Harper not the Green Party to change the world for good.
Finally we are getting to a point where people are realizing the planet is dying. Species are dying. Our childrens's future is dying. What's it worth? Is it worth?
If the Green Party wasn't in the game or wasn't fighting for our future -- these donors would not have been donating to another party -- it's use it or lose it.
See Elizabeth on Mike Duffy at www.ctv.ca
In case you missed it yesterday (March 19), Mike Duffy's interview with Elizabeth on CTV Newsnet is posted online at http://www.ctv.ca/politics, scroll down to "Mike Duffy Live: Green Party Leader Elizabeth May discusses the party's byelection results and gaining popularity."
Thanks Elizabeth
Thanks for mentioning electoral reform Elizabeth.
----
Julien Lamarche, Ottawa-Vanier Greens
Jabber / GoogleTalk IM: jlam@jabber.org
----
http://www.julienlamarche.ca - julien.lamarche@gmail.com
The 4 electoral systems: http://preview.tinyurl.com/5hzoxl
GPC won 11.2% in urban ridings in by-elections
Just did the analysis -- and of the 74,913 votes cast in Toronto Centre, Vancouver Quadra and Willowdale we won 8,380 votes or 11.2% of the vote.
This is significant for a number of reasons. First off it gives us a range of what we can expect to win in the actual general election of 10.2% to 11.2%.
While we won 10.2% of all votes cast in the by-elections on March 17, the GPC support in city ridings is even higher. Given that 80% of Canadians live in cities -- our support in the general election will be closer to 11.2% than 10.2%.
It's interesting to note that our support in urban centres was 11.2% while the NDP's was 11.3%.
Of course during a general election where we receive a higher proportion of media coverage our support will rise even higher.
It's important to note that the NDP won 9 seats in 1993 with just 6.88% of the vote across Canada.
Polls over the last year have put the GPC at double that level and now we have the result from 4 simultaneuos by-elections putting us at almost that level. So Go Greens Go!!!
On Eve of three by-elections reflecting on March 17 victories
On the eve of three more by-elections being called (Guelph, Westmount Ville Marie and St Lambert) before July 27, I reflected back on the incredible showing we had just a few months ago in the four March 17 by-elections -- and came across this great blog by Chris Tindal the candidate in Toronto Centre.
See http://www.christindal.ca/2008/03/18/victory/