For 1st time Greens within 3% of NDP according to Feb 16 Ipsos Reid Poll
The Green Party is in a 'virtual tie' with the NDP across Canada according to a newly released poll by Ipsos Reid. The Green Party is at 10.5% while the NDP is at 13.3% -- the margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.35% 19 times out of 20. So the Green Party is within the margin of error of the NDP. (scroll down for graph). The Liberals are at 29.5% while the Conservatives are at 36.1% and the Bloc at 9.2%.
A long list of polling companies over the last few months have put the Green Party ahead of, tied with or on a 'virtual tie' with the NDP -- Ipsos Reid, Strategic Counsel and Harris Decima among others -- so the Green Party's rise compared to the NDP can no longer be said to be a once-off occurance it's now a clearly emerging trend.
This is the first time ever that the Green Party has been in a 'virtual tie' with the NDP in an Ipsos-Reid poll (see bottom of this post for list of other blogs highlighting this trend).
In a National Post article today (Feb 16) Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid, notes that the NDP, would be facing a rough ride if an election was called now, as its' polling numbers have dropped to "historically low levels."
Some Regional Breakdowns
In Ontario the NDP slipped another point to 14%, while the Green party rose to 13% of decided voters.
In Quebec, the Green Party is at 11% ahead of the NDP at 10%.
In Alberta the Green Party is at 12% ahead of the NDP at 10% (this bodes well for the provincial election underway) while the Liberals ate at 16%.
Of course the Green Party is ahead of the Bloc across Canada in national support -- nothing new here -- this has been the case for the last year -- and the trend is highlighted more in other polling companies' results.
The Ipsos Reid poll is interesting for a number of other reasons. Here's the most important one: a staggering 62% of Canadians say they might switch their vote before the next election -- to me this indicates they are deeply dissatisfied with all the old-line, traditional parties. There is very little commitment by the vast majority of voters to any of the old line parties.
A second reason is the large gender gap. The Conservatives support of 36% across Canada is made up of 42% support among males and 31% among females. While the Liberal support of 29% is made up of is 24% support among men and 34% among women. In this poll the Green Party has pretty much equal male and female support.
The gender gap is another reason Elizabeth's being in the debates will change everything. As the only female leader she'll be able to really shake up Canadian politics.
This, of course is amazing news for the Greens -- and helps explain our continuous, unabated rise in popularity. The Conservatives according to Ipsos-Reid are down marginally from the 2006 election (-0.2%), the Liberals are down 0.7%, the NDP are down 4.2% and the Bloc is down 1.3%. Meanwhile the Green Party has more than doubled our support (+5.5%)! Go Greens Go!
It's a nice graph to look at on a Saturday morning.
Other blogs highlighting Trends of Green Party surpassing NDP
Green's Support Surpasses NDP's in Canada for First Time Ever: GPC is 3rd National Party http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3149
Greens Surpass NDP in Ontario for 1st time ever http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3615
- Jim Harris's blog
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Comments
Double digits with Ipsos-Reid!
Hey I didn't even notice the January 24, 2008 poll.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40th_Canadian_federal...
That's twice we've hit double digits with Ipsos-Reid (a polling company we usually scored low)!
Now *that's* a reason to celebrate!!
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http://www.julienlamarche.ca - julien.lamarche@gmail.com
The 4 electoral systems: http://preview.tinyurl.com/5hzoxl
Amazing coming from Ipsos
Why is it that the Ipsos Reid polls are so out of sync with most of the others? They almost ALWAYS have the Cons WAY higher than the Liberals. In two days the Globe will run a Harris Decima poll with the Liberals 6 points ahead of the Conservatives. What methodologies are these companies are using? And are they consistent from one poll to the next?
I do know that Ipsos often asks a bunch of issue related questions before asking which party a given respondent plans to support. And those questions could easily be worded so as to taint one's opinion.
For example ... "Many Canadians think Stephane Dion is a weak leader. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being strong and 10 being weak, how would you rank Stephane Dion's leadership abilities? ... Oh yes, and finally, which party would you vote for if an election were held today?"
This is obviously an exaggeration ... but not much.
Everything's connected
Whole blog devoted to Ipsos-Reid overestimating Con Support
Hey Kelly
In answer to your question see GPC's Relentless Rise: Ipsos-Reid Under-estimates Green Support by 2%: Inflates Conservative's Support 5%+ at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3199
Jim
The importance of getting Ms. May in the debates
That is one lesson to be gathered from these poll results. With 62% of Canadians willing to switch their votes, this shows people are looking for something currently not available. Even if the debates are not for another year, it is important to keep pushing to get the GPC leader included, because it shows the Green Party is on a par with the other parties.
The "62%" volatility also shows that each of us needs to be getting our names and message out in our ridings. People are looking for an alternative, and they don't really like what they see. The more we make ourselves visible as a credible alternative, the more potential for some of that massive 62% to go Green.
The opportunity is unprecedented. In many ridings, if you could convince 1/3 of that 62% to go Green, you would win your riding or come very close. Even if you don't win, increasing the percentage of those who vote Green increases the amount of money for the next go-round, increases GPC credibility, and solidifies us as a real alternative.
Brian Gordon
Nominated Candidate, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Green Party of Canada
Trained Presenter
An Inconvenient Truth
People - Planet - Prosperity
The New Green Economy
Absolutley Right! with such volatility the Debates are Essential
Great point Brian!
With Elizabeth being in the debates we can see huge shifts. For instance the Reform Party won no seats in 1988 and in 1993 won 52 seats. The difference? Preston Manning was included in the debates. There are so many examples like this. Gordon Wilson in BC -- no seats, included and became leader of the opposition in the province.
Also for the Greens. In the case of GPBC in 2001 the party jumped to 12.4% when Adriane Carr was included (the prior election the party won 2%).
TV debates and democracy
First, let me acknowledge the importance of Jim's post before I go off on a related topic. The trends are pretty clear, and the significance of the polls is that, if people were to vote today, we would get about as many votes as the NDP would (+/- as noted above). Please note that the voter preference in the above numbers is without the Green Party having been present at the televised debates, a forum which is known to shape the outcome of elections (remember Mulroney v. Turner?).
Now to Brian's observation about the debates. The NDP received 2.6 million votes in the last general election, and it is hard to imagine that they would not be invited to the next leader's debate. Yet, it is still possible that Canadians would not have the opportunity to hear Elizabeth speak to the issues of the day.
Now, to link in to Bill Hulet's thread on participatory democracy, it is important to remember that voting is only a part of the democratic experience. The right of free speech, to communicate and share ideas, is essential to the exercise of democracy. I believe that our institutions, including the media, have an obligation to fairly inform voters about their choices.
When we are polling at the same level as the NDP, and above the Bloc, how can a civilized society justify the continued exclusion of the Green Party in the debates?
I would encourage everyone who reads this, inside the Green Party or not, to consider the damage which could be done to Canada's reputation as a leader of democracy in the world if we do not do the right thing this time. Please, sign the petition at http://www.letelizabethspeak.ca and talk to your MP about the importance of her inclusion.
Jim Johnston,
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Opinions expressed are my own.
We have to gear up the campaign to get Elizabeth in the Debates
Thank you, thank you, thank you Jim for raising this!
Every Green has to promote to all their friends signing http://www.letelizabethspeak.ca -- shortly I'll put out a breifing paper on 100 reasons why we have to be included in the debates! And then everyone can take whatever reasons move them most and send it to everyone in their contact list -- in Outlook, on Facebook -- on listserves.
Jim
Not Outlook, Thunderbird!
Not Outlook, Thuderbird!. Thunderbird can import your Outlook contacts. Given the later fact, I think it is relatively easy to make the switch to an open source mail client. This makes your telecommunication tools free of corporate interests. It makes you a stakeholder of a more collaborative, decentralized way of developing those tools.
Walk the talk of our Vision Green policy on open source!
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http://www.julienlamarche.ca - julien.lamarche@gmail.com
The 4 electoral systems: http://preview.tinyurl.com/5hzoxl
How about a new tactic?
In Guelph we've been having "vision" sessions with our membership to brainstorm new ways of running our next local campaign. Getting Elizabeth onto the debate came up and one of our members made a suggestion that I think we should consider following en masse.
Basically, she said that the best way to get the networks to do something is by threatening their sponsors. (This is how the Fundamentalists get television shows to change their content.) Why not come up with a list of the largest advertisers with the various networks, get their email addresses, phone numbers and snail mail addresses; put them together with a short sample message; and; start a viral message campaign to get people to contact these sponsors to suggest that they want Elizabeth on the debate or else they will stop buying from these companies?
There is so much support for getting Elizabeth onto the debate that we would probably get a lot of people forwarding this message and posting it on other people's blogs. We could include something to the effect that "We know that an election hasn't been called yet, but these things take time to achieve results and if we wait until the writ is dropped it will be too late."
We could also say something to the effect that "We know that your company is not personally responsible for this problem, but the networks have proved themselves totally unwilling to listen to our concerns---even though an overwhelming majority of Canada's citizenry want the Green Party included in the debates. We know that the networks will listen to you, however. Any help you could give us will be gratefully acknowledged and we would be happy to hear from you about how we can engage on this issue constructively instead of trying to start a boycott."
As far as that goes, we could approach these corporations before we try to to do this and simply ask them to do some arm-twisting on our behalf. We could suggest that if they aren't willing to do this simply because it's the "right thing to do", we would be forced to organize a boycott campaign.
"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
Wow! Great idea
That's a fantastic idea Bill! Way to go Guelph Greens. It shouldn't be that hard to come up with a list of people and then e-mail blast the heck out of them.
Polls are good, seats are better
To get into the debates there is just one sure-fire way. We need to win a seat on March 17th. Every time the debates are brought up the media says 'only those with seats get in'. As long as the networks and traditional parties have that hammer they will continue to use it.
So, everyone reading this, we need to get out there and do something about the March 17th vote. If you want May in the debates donate, volunteer, tell friends who live in the voting ridings. One seat and everything changes. Especially if the Toronto Centre seat could be taken from Bob Rae. A win in the media capital of Canada against a star candidate in a riding that a dog should be able to win as a Liberal would send shockwaves throughout the system. Lets make it happen!
John Northey
Wellington-Halton Hills