Greens Relentlessly Rise as Cons Sag

Harris Decima's most recent poll shows the Green Party at 12% across Canada -- above the Bloc and almost within the margin of error of the NDP.

Across the country the Green Party of Canada continues to build support.

For any pundit who thinks that the Green Party pulls its support from the left, the figures below should dispel that notion forever. We pull our support from across the entire political spectrum. To really understand how the Green Party is further to more fiscally responsible than the parties of the right, while as the same time being more socially progressive than the parties of the left see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1150

Compared to our standing in the 2006 federal election here's the great news:

. . . . . . . . . . .Harris Decima . . . . 2006
Party. . . . . . . . . . . Poll. . . . . . Election . . . . .Difference

Green Party . . . . . 12% . . . . . . . 4.5% . . . . . . + 7.5%
Libs . . . . . . . . . . .32% . . . . . . . 30.2%. . . . . . + 1.8%
NDP . . . . . . . . . . 16% . . . . . . . 17.5% . . . . . . .-1.5%
Bloc . . . . . . . . . . . 9% . . . . . . . 10.5% . . . . . . . -1.5%
Cons . . . . . . . . . . 29% . . . . . . .36.3% . . . . . . -7.3%

You can download the full poll from http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/080129E...

Now I can hear some people already saying -- "Well, it's just one poll." And yes, they'd be correct, it is just one poll -- so to preempt that critique, I'm also posting the latest 5 poll rolling average from Paulitics -- which you can see at http://paulitics.wordpress.com/polls/

Look at the differences of each party's support from the federal election -- the Green Party is up 140% from our 2006 support (6.3% above 4.5%); the Liberals are up 1% since (0.4% above 30.6%); the Conservatives have sagged 6% (-2.1% below 36.3%); the Dipper support has dipped 15% (-2.7% below 17.5%); while the Bloc has dipped 12% (1.3% below 10.5%)

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Such beautiful graphs to stare at

These are such beautiful graphs to stare at.

5 poll high

The other thing I like about this one is that we've maintained a 5 poll average in the 10-15% range for 7 weeks... the longest we had so far.

GPC has broken out of 8-10% now regularly exceeding 10%

Julien you are very correct to point out that the GPC has broken out of th 8-10% range that we have maintained for the last year.

Now the rolling average of 5 polls consistently being in the 9.5-11% range for the last three months. This is significant and again highlights the party's relentless rise.

Thank you for drawing attention to it!

Jim

Regional gains

Looking at the regional gains on Paulitics:
http://paulitics.wordpress.com/polls-provincialreg...

Biggest to smallest gain as of Janurary 23rd from 2006 election (plus party that lost the most, biggest gainer):

Ontario: +5.9% (NDP lost the most, GPC biggest gainer)

BC: +4.9% (-NDP, +GPC)

Alberta: +3.5% (-Cons, +GPC)

Quebec: +2.4% (-BQ, +NDP)

Atlantic: +2.4% (-NDP, +GPC)

Prairies: +1.0% (-NDP, +Cons; scary!)

So conclusion:
- Yes, its a good idea to have the convention in the Atlantic
- Our next stop should be somewhere in the Prairies
- We need more French bloggers & I need to blog more in French. :-) That's a joke, of course, especially because so far I'm under the impression Francophone's are not as big surfers.

svp voir

http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3699#comment-3065

le changement le plus significatif pendant les mois précédents est de croissance dans les régions de Toronto et Montréal, mais je ne saurais l'expliquer

quelqu'un d'autre en offre explication?

Re: Regional gains

No wonder Dippers are so angry on rabble.ca!

Kenn

Why?

Conservatives are surging in B.C. and the prairies but falling in Ontario and Quebec according to Julien's link. What is causing this?

Number of possible explanations

First off, Paul doesn't publish what polls he's basing his 5 day rolling average on for the provincial polls as he does the federal polls.

But I know that a company like Environics hasn't been prompting for the Green Party except in BC in provincial polls. That automatically reduces the party's support by 5%.

For instance in the most recent Environics provincial poll in Ontario Environics put the Green Party at 0% -- when just in October we won 8% -- not in a poll but in an actual election. That means Environic's polls are very, very inaccurate. Averaging them into the mix would depress the Green Party's actual support.

Just one explanation.

Jim

Polls, standard practice to dismiss

"But I know that a company like Environics hasn't been prompting for the Green Party except in BC in provincial polls. That automatically reduces the party's support by 5%. "

Usually the group paying for a poll wants another side strategically dismissed. For example, the CPoC does not want the enviroment highlighted. Accordingly, when asking for which party one supports (or are likely to support), the party to be dismissed is not listed as an option. Harper's team has done this several times.

And yes, some national polling companies play along because they need the work… so always ask who is paying for the poll and note who gets diced.

The group paying the bills is trying to dismiss what embarrasses them. The company doing the poll is looking for more business.

Who paid for the Environics poll? Does anyone know?

Cheers,

Coffee (aka Walkswithcoffee)

Cheers, Coffee (aka Walkswithcoffee)

Greens tied with Conservatives in Quebec

I had a chance to look at the most recent Harris Decima poll on the weekend.I found one unexpected little gem in there. In Quebec, within the margin of error, the Greens are tied with the Conservatives and the NDP (13%, 14%, 12%, respectively).

Jim Johnston,
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex

Opinions expressed are my own.

Jim Johnston, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex Opinions expressed are my own.