Greens Surpass NDP in Ontario for 1st time ever
The Green Party of Canada has surpassed the NDP for the first time ever in vote rich Ontario (38% of all votes in the 2006 federal election were cast in Ontario).
Harris Decima’s most recent poll (released January 9) shows the GPC at 14% in the province of Ontario, while the NDP is at 12%. It's important to note that these are three week rolling averages, so these averages involve multiple polls.
The NDP support in Ontario has collapsed from over 25% in early 2006 to just 12% today -- a more than 50% reduction. By contrast, Green support has surged from 6% to 14% -- a 133% increase.
This is the first time ever the GPC has exceeded the NDP in Ontario.
The front page of the Ideas section of the Toronto Star today (January 12) features a story by Susan Delacourt on the issue. Delacourt points out that “the New Democrats . . . are now routinely placing well behind the Greens – by as much as seven percentage points in December – within the 905 area code.”
Later in the article Delacourt writes:
Harris/Decima president Bruce Anderson says the Green party numbers in the 905 area code offer an important glimpse into the minds and motivations of voters these days, beyond the GTA. He says that what we're seeing in the Toronto suburbs is also percolating in suburbs of Vancouver, Calgary and even Montreal.
The environment is not a flash in the pan and it's not just a youthful pursuit. “The truth is that there are as many 50-something environmentalists as there are 20-something environmentalists,” he says.
People are concerned about the environment because they actually feel its effects in their everyday lives – weird weather, for instance. And suburban voters, in their capacity as homeowners, parents and community members, may see things even more acutely from their vantage point, Anderson suggests.
The NDP apparently is completely nonchalant about being eclipsed by the Green Party. Brad Lavigne, the NDP's communications director, claims that the NDP "is steady in the 905 and up in the 416” -- in the last year -- but when you look at the trend since the 2006 election it's bleak for the NDP.
The Star article shows support for the NDP in 905 ridings falling from a high of 22% in 2006 to 10% today while the Green Party support has risen from 4% to 16% today.
The graph for 416 area code ridings shows NDP support falling from more than 30% in 2006 to 15% today while the Green Party support has risen from 4% in 2006 to 15% today.
Rather than comment on why the NDP's support is collapsing, Lavigne tries to change the focus by suggesting that the Green Party doesn’t hold it’s vote come election day.
Here are some facts for Lavigne: In the recent Ontario election the Green Party held onto every single vote the pollsters' predicted. Averaging the last poll from six different polling firms just before the October 10 election predicted the Green Party would win 8% of the vote and the party won exactly 8%. In other words the Green Party has grown so strong on the ground in grass roots campaigning that we hold our vote.
In the 2004 and 2006 elections the party was still building infrastructure and growing our membership. But now we are a force to be reckoned with.
In the London North Centre federal by-election the NDP said the Green Party support would fall – but it was the NDP vote that collapsed from 24% in the 2006 general election to 14% in the by-election, while Green Party support surged from 5.5% in general election to 26% in the November 2006 by-election.
The Green Party vote has eclipsed the NDP in PEI, in Calgary, in provincial elections, and the Green Party vote surpassed the NDP’s in almsot two dozen idings in the recent Ontario provincial election.
In different polls, from different polling companies the Green Party has been ahead of the NDP in almost every region at different times.
Download the full Harris Decima poll from http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/080110B...
For the Toronto Star article see http://www.thestar.com/News/Ideas/article/293307
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Comments
Origin (and maintenance) of our support
For those outside Ontario, '905' refers to the suburbs and ancillary cities outside Metro Toronto containing a high proportion of commuters and a high growth (sprawl) rate. I'm sure there are similar areas in most provinces.
There is a clear reason that this demographic is strong in Green support and isn't satisfied with what they see from the Conservatives, Liberals, or NDP.
As long as we understand this reason, we can continue to build our support and not fall into any of the gray party traps.
People in the 'burbs realize that there is a problem, and furthermore that they are part of the problem. They want to be part of the solution. The messaging of the other parties doessn't address this need.
Conservative messaging is either to pretend there is no problem, assume it will solve itself or otherwise go away, or complain that it's too expensive to address so we should do nothing. The public is coming to realize these assertions simply aren't true.
The NDP answer is to blame it all on corporations and try to put all the taxes and regulations on them - as if this won't affect the suburbanites who run and work for those corporations, or the prices suburbanites pay for their products. The NDP's stale class-war message is a complete failure in that demographic. Little contradictions like offering cheaper electricity to industry or the poor while trying to reduce consumption further detract from their cred.
The Liberals are too much of a moving target on this - people can't forget their past history of inaction and corruption, and despite a 'new' leader, are not yet willing to trust them. Their policies aren't clear, nor are they clearly differentiated from what the other parties propose.
That leaves the Greens. Our message has several strengths. One is that we are clearly more trustworthy, as we are patently not in politics for personal power, patronage positions, or other material gains. (If we were, we'd be in the mainstream parties). We aren't there to promote only CEOs, or labour unions, or any other special interest group, and we aren't tied to a class or party blame game.
Another strength is that we recognize the need for ALL segments of the economy - business, government, and individuals - to do their part. Simple but universal measures like a carbon tax shift are seen as a fair way to spread the burden evenly rather than favour one segment or target one whipping-boy.
'905-ers' recognize that, for the public to be a part of the solution, we need the government to help by altering pricing to better reflect footprint, by filtering out the worst technologies or supporting the best, but not by making our decisions for us. They know the Conservatives are ignoring the issue, and that the NDP will rely on top-down central planning instead of trusting the power of properly-informed and regulated markets.
To maintain this trend we must avoid messaging in the NDP style of blaming corporations or business for everything, nor assuming it's all a matter of individual consumer choice as the Conservatives do.
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
Barrie, ON
The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada - the same goes for all other people's posts & comments.
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, Barrie ON - although I'm on Cabinet (Nat'l Rev. and Ecol. Fiscal Reform), views here are my own and may not reflect official GPC positions. Please visit www.ErichtheGreen.ca
More on support
I agree largely with Erich here. His assessment of the NDP is pretty bang on, I will add that I don’t think the public trust the NDP to manage the economy. I disagree a little with your assessment of the Conservatives though, I don’t think they are competitive in that region, nor do they really care. The politics of big urban Toronto don’t play very well where their base is and they have formed a government without it. Again I slightly disagree on the Liberals, I think after 12 years in power it was their time to leave, but can look to this area in the future for support again. They have talked a good game on many issues and have not delivered, this weakness is displayed by the NDP as well, people have voted for them for decades yet they show no signs of ever forming government and accomplishing anything.
I may be very unpopular for saying this but the green vote in the past has been a protest vote. When you have no chance of wining people only vote for you in protest. We are moving beyond that and are/will getting a momentum boost as people now believe we can win seats. To add to Erich’s points we can learn or take from the other threes’ experiences: Unlike the Conservatives we can be a party of a broad coalition of ideas from all sides of the spectrum and geography of the country appealing to a large voter base. We need to be effective unlike the Liberals, tell people how it is and become a party that is trusted and respected by the voters. Unlike the NDP, voters need to believe that we care about getting things done instead of lying on principal over power, and putting political production over political partisanship.
Conservatives care, but don't get it
Au contraire, I believe the Conservatives care deeply about their 905 support. This is where they need to make a breakthrough if they are to win their coveted majority. They are not satisfied merely to form a government - they want the unopposed power Chretien had. To do that they need to build support in Quebec (not happening yet) and seat-rich Ontario. They already have the rural Ontario seats, they want to break into the suburban '905' kind of areas, the same ones which gave Harris his majorities. They have clearly written off urban 416 but are assuming they have natural drawing power over 905. That they don't will throw a wrench in their plans.
While both the Conservatives and Liberals will continue to draw support from these areas (less so NDP), both of them are hitting new, lower ceilings as our base there grows. The Liberals already have the seats, so they can only lose ground at this point.
Certainly there has always been an element of protest vote in Green support, but in the past 3 years or so that's been a shrinking part of the picture. I continue to meet voters who are voting 'for' something when they vote Green, not just 'none of the above'. Many of them truly believe we have a chance of winning - and soon they'll be right.
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
Barrie, ON
The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada - the same goes for all other people's posts & comments.
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, Barrie ON - although I'm on Cabinet (Nat'l Rev. and Ecol. Fiscal Reform), views here are my own and may not reflect official GPC positions. Please visit www.ErichtheGreen.ca
I disagree
I disagree, the conservatives won 154 of the 308 seats in 2006, needing only 31 more for their majority. Based on their last budget and what the pundits are saying about the next budget, it will be another sweetheart budget for Quebec. I think the conservatives think they can pick up the majority of those 31 seats from the Bloc and Liberals in Quebec, following the model of Mario Dumont the old 3rd choice provincially.
I do agree that they don’t get it, if it wasn’t for some very basic blunders they would have their 40+% in the polls.
Cons still need 905
The Conservatives went from holding only 2 of the 22 '905' seats in 2004 to holding 5 of them now. If they lose support there, that's 5 more seats they'll have to make up elsewhere. Instead, I think they want to pick up a few more of them to take some of the pressure off getting so many in QC (still some wishful exaggeration there). There aren't many more seats to gain out West, and they haven't made many friends in the Atlantic, so I think they are still counting on a bit more 905 McLovin' to push them over the top. It's our job to make sure it doesn't happen.
Yet instead of positioning themselves to get new votes, they keep playing to their Western neo- and so-con base. That base simply isn't sufficient to give them a majority, so unless they change their spots and move even more centre than they ran in 2006, they won't be making gains. (And, of course, moving centre may cost them base votes).
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
Barrie, ON
The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada - the same goes for all other people's posts & comments.
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, Barrie ON - although I'm on Cabinet (Nat'l Rev. and Ecol. Fiscal Reform), views here are my own and may not reflect official GPC positions. Please visit www.ErichtheGreen.ca
"Change is in the Air"
There is no 905 definition or sample size information provided in the poll documentation linked. This diminishes the usefulness of inferences therefrom. NDP strategists would be sensible in apparent complacency in the face of this apparent drop in support, because they are most concerned about actual seats & competitive ridings rather than overall vote count. In eastern GTA there are a couple of electoral possibilities for them (esp. Oshawa); they have a few seats in Toronto proper, and are competitive if unlikely in a couple of others; similar for Hamilton (out of "GTA"?). All that indicates "steady". Great would be a major national NDP focus on some form of PR, but I think they think it would appear too self-seving, and instead they've strangely concentrated on abolition of the Senate. That strangeness in itself brings into question their strategists' judgement, not GTA number concerns which would have little likely bearing on any upcoming election. If "905" takes in that broader area NW of Toronto that GPO did better in, then perhaps the Green draw for many there to the unfortunate GPO education policy might be transforming into into broader attraction to green concerns. Thus did I state in my opposition, that good things can stem from bad beginnings. Still, that anything like this is actually occurring in a significant way is not determinable from the scant information provided. In the Star article, Mayor Miller's words don't have much "green" meaning either, and are even contradictory to Green concerns. Toronto, however, has launched a fairly important "Climate Change, Clean Air and Sustainable Energy Action Plan" ( http://www.toronto.ca/changeisintheair/pdf/clean_a... ), for which public consultations are scheduled I believe for March. The concerns of 905- & 416-ers are confused on deeper green matters, but the title of the Action Plan is appropriate, "Change is in the Air".
No need to dismiss poll
The sample size for Ontario is given as avg over 1000, between 977 and 2131. Assuming they call evenly around the province (by population), that means at least a couple hundred each in each of 905 and 416 (which are defined quite clearly in the Star article - by area code). That's a pretty good sample size for a rolling average graph, and the trend (which is more important than a single date) is clear. Since the area code breakdown is not even mentioned at the Harris/Decima site, clearly the reporter had access to more information on paper or through interview.
Although average vote is different than seats won, it is nothing to sneer at. For one thing, such averages indicate a general rise/fall among noncommitted voters in specific ridings. They also make a huge difference in per-vote funding (more for us, less for NDP to pay off their $18 million campaign with) and in media coverage and public credibility - which are critical positive feedback loops. Ironically, the more votes we get without winning seats, the stronger the case for PR.
NDP strategists are giving exactly the same kind of responses they gave in LNC and in the ON general election - discounting our strength until is is proven to them in X marks.
'905' is not the same as the area you believe was influenced by our "unfortunate" (I know you don't agree with it, but how do you see it as unfortunate? I would say the opposite, given results) GPO education policy. Those ridings were mostly 705/519 area codes.
I would say that the 3-week rolling line shows something very significant happening, although the underlying reasons are more open to speculation.
What, pray tell, do you see as contradictory to Green in Miller's quotes?
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
Barrie, ON
The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada - the same goes for all other people's posts & comments.
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, Barrie ON - although I'm on Cabinet (Nat'l Rev. and Ecol. Fiscal Reform), views here are my own and may not reflect official GPC positions. Please visit www.ErichtheGreen.ca
"the burbs"
"The burbs", "mainly suburban","beyond the GTA" are used in reference to '905' -- so if 905 is not GTA, what is it? There seems confused use of 'GTA' & 'suburban' with 905 & 416. Miller says, the "border between 416 and 905 is much more fluid", so he's not using words in their primary sense either. The vast majority of 905-ers are not exactly "suburban". Does "suburban" mean just not central Toronto or Hamilton?
In any case, my seeking greater clarity is no dismissal at all, and we must agree on some major points about the staying power of GPC support. The pollsters comment about "50-something environmentalists as there are 20-something environmentalists" is wrong by other poll breakdowns, ages 40-60 being lowest Green support, (but goes up over 60), unless "enviro" can mean other parties for the pollster, too.
"I wish governments would help me change those things" -- these are the key words to entire article, expressing a regnant Cdn. spirit of waiting for govt. to take a lead, which govt. tends itself to wait until others more bravely have gone first, but means now that Cons. are failing & lagging badly & must be turfed as most un-Cdn. in this sense, in their not readily accepting the lead-in of Canadians looking to govt. for leadership here (unfortunately this might translate into greater electoral success for Libs. who'd do better on some fronts, much the same on too many others; whatever disagreements, Erich, I'm with you for turfing the others, but I do wish more Greens would come to see more clearly that NDP types are their likelier long-term colleagues & counterbalance, maybe NDP-ers will disabuse themselves of Liberal-displacement envy if they fail to make adequate gains in an upcoming election, fat expense account notwithstanding; NDP stategists are foolish if they think the GPC support will evaporate this time around (see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3293 ), but watch for their claiming enviro. turf for themselves. it's going to be hard for them at this point to introduce too loudly the green issues without having people consider Greens...
I wouldn't assume anything about poll distribution throughout province; would have to have a few similarly resultant polls; wouldn't assume reporter had more access either, possible, but could go either way. I agree totally that vote count is nothing to sneer at, it's just sensibly at this point not NDP focus; but it should be Greens', for the higher the %, as I've argued elsewhere, the more attention to be paid by the others; if GPC achieves,say, a stunning 15%-plus, esp. if they top or near equal NDP & Bloc but have no seats to show for that, I also agree that the PR-essure will be elevated, maybe a PM Dion would move on it (per his words quoted by me from http://www.greenparty.ca/en/releases/13.04.2007 at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1678 : "but here still is a chance for [Dion] to show clearly a move consistent with his comment on "the potential for electoral reform"; but don't count on it from them, even at 20%, for various reasons, some urgent some longstanding!)
I don't suppose we should open here the question of "unfortunate" re ed. policy, besides I admit as much myself above that good things can ensue from bad beginnings, so at least in part for having broken any "fringe" electoral taboo for some, voting GPO for whatever reason might have been a partial justification for satisfaction at the policy; but the cost is really too high if the policy is not majorly amended & other traits don't come to the fore in dominant GPO circles, at least in this regard.
I know "705/519" were mostly in question with the GPO %s, that's why I'd like to see more clarity on the definition of "905", "burbs", "GTA"; your own obvious good hard political work in Barrie (705) has had good results, but Barrie is as short a commute to central Toronto as Oakville (905) -- is 905 a commuting radius? If actual area code region is meant for the poll & Miller's words &c, then there is inconsistency; besides, it were very, very useful to see those more minute breakdowns, as we've both noted before on the GPO discussion list about another recent poll (Nanos).
Reporter had more info
Clearly the reporter had more info that us, because the data on the Harris/Decima site has no mention at all of 905 or 416 breakdowns. The reporter couldn't have made this up, so there was more information given to some than we have access to.
The article makes it pretty clear that they are using area codes, and this would be the simplest way for H/D to break it down, too - since it is a phone poll, after all.
What I believe Miller meant by a fluid border is not that the area code border definition is weak, but that people tend to flow across in both directions in their daily life, and it's not like you could see the border on the ground. (No Israeli "separation barrier" here). Nevertheless, there is a fairly significant sense of belonging to 'urban' Toronto (416) or 'suburban' GTA (905) for which the area codes make a handy shorthand. (Barrie is kind of like a 905 outpost transplanted in the 705 rurality).
It might be nice if we could work with the NDP to get things done. Right now, the only barriers to that seem to the NDP approach to policy: centralized, top-down, class war and entitlements-based; and their approach to politics: keep your enemies (Conservatives) closer, put partisanship before common good. If they can get past those, there's plenty of room for us to cooperate to reach common goals. But despite our poor air quality, I won't be holding my breath in anticipation. (In the meantime, Peter Tabuns would make a great Green).
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
Barrie, ON
The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada - the same goes for all other people's posts & comments.
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, Barrie ON - although I'm on Cabinet (Nat'l Rev. and Ecol. Fiscal Reform), views here are my own and may not reflect official GPC positions. Please visit www.ErichtheGreen.ca
dippers & grippers
"In Ontario, the Green Party is edging ahead of the NDP, something especially evident in the GTA." That's from the poll report itself, read 'til the end. What's "GTA" exactly there? "Reporter had more info", sure, we just can't say with any confidence what.
"(No Israeli "separation barrier" here)" -- bizarre remark, I must say (I suggest you edit it out, as I would this thereafter).
"Right now, the only barriers to that seem to [be] the NDP approach to policy:" I don't think so. See http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1406#comment-792 & http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3053#comment-2275 . If they seem to "put partisanship before common good", it is in what they believe is their cause's general interest.