Tory headed for defeat in Don Valley West aided by GPO candidate Adrian Walker promoting single school system
The Green Party's position of having only one publicly funded education system is playing a role in the unfolding of the likely defeat of John Tory in Don Valley West.
Tory is headed for defeat in Don Valley West, according to a Ottawa Citizen/COMPAS poll.
Adrian was brilliant in the all-candidates debate this past Sunday, representing the Green Party positions. It was the only debate that Tory attended in the campaign. Adrian got the most spontaneous applause in the whole debate when he put forward the Green Party's position of funding just one public school system and instead investing the savings of $500 million in improving education for our children.
Photo: The debate was packed and covered by every TV network. Adrian sat in the centre between Tory and Wynne -- as seen through a camera's monitor here. (the NDP candidate was absent)
Adrian and his green team are running a strong campaign in the riding and are headed to best the NDP candidate in the riding.
The acutal polling nubmers are 52% Wynne (Liberal incumbent); 37% Tory (PC Leader); 6% Adian Walker (GPO candidate); 5% NDP. The Green Party is attracting a significant support even though this riding is one of the ridings that will experience the biggest ever push for strategic voting in this election.
This is another reason to support MMP: in the last provincial election 225,000 Toronto voters didn't elect a single MPP, while federally in 2006 400,000 Toronto electors didn't get a single seat. So the largest city in Canada, has no representation in Conservative caucus provincially or federally.
An Ottawa Citizen/COMPAS poll of Don Valley West was carried out carefully over a five day period, September 25-29, 2007, to minimize the risk of sampling error. It shows the Liberal incumbent with a 15% lead over the PC leader, as shown in table 1. By convention, the poll of 333 voters is deemed accurate to within approximately 5.6 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
The full poll is listed as an attachement at the bottom of this blog or it is avialable at http://www.compas.ca/pages/FrameMain.html
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Comments
[error/mischief]
[the following are reposted here as orginally done, after finding them somehow improperly moved to after a different blog entry by someone else; this was discovered only late 6 Oct., having no computer access for several days since 3 Oct. comments below]
some difficulties
Submitted by Daryl Vernon on 3 October 2007 - 12:07am.
It's hard to see what "role [is being played] in the unfolding of the likely defeat of John Tory" by GPO's "position of having only one publicly funded education system". It is clear that the (per most recent polls) at least doubled support GPO has over last election is on the coattails of GPC. It is also notable that GPO poll numbers have apparently dropped significantly during this campaign (see http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/1859 -- around 11% to around 6% now). Maybe what is meant is merely that one more voice was added & applauded in uncomprehending opposition to Tory's partly sensible education proposal.
The main piece in GPO's education policy had finally been properly attenuated from its seriously problematic first expression, but I'm afraid is still being poorly played. A major concern was that a positive referendum result might be jeopardized by this grosser expression of poor policy. If GPO is getting lesser notice than is otherwise just, it might not be all that bad since greater prominence might have been given to missteps regarding this most ungreen policy (itself something of a contentious recent reversal of prior policy).
I happen to be acquainted with principals in Ontario's "fair funding for education" movement. I share little with them regarding education, having non-/un-/home-schooled our children for almost three decades. However, their search for equity is well-founded, & almost all opposition thereto, especially as expressed recently by Ontarians within & without GPO, most especially by Liberal leader McGuinty, is wrongful & very disappointing, based at best on ignorance. I'm almost afraid to ask what occasioned "the most spontaneous applause" at the meeting.
Tory's Ontario Tories, in common with some other parties of the "right", make an attempt at playing postmodern, but fail miserably. A postmodern pluralistic inclusivism is properly the home of Greens, and in education policy it is to be hoped GPO will soon more wisely correct itself back into that proper stance. The Tories most foolishly put focus on "faith-based". I asked someone close to them how they came to such a foolish posture, jeopardizing the cause for equity in line with most other Canadians. (Ontarian sorry history in educational discrimination is part of the root of our peculiar inequity today.) I was told that the Tory inner circle decided against campaigning for "independent" schools, rather than only for religious, lest they be misinterpreted as favouring the wealthy, electors being led to believe (abetted by severely hypocritical Liberals) that the Tories want to "subsidize" places like Upper Canada College. What a sorry, inept move to focus on "faith-based"!
The "savings of $500 million" per GPO education policy is dubious indeed. It rather seems that this is a first excursion by GPO into playing the calculating & less principled side of politics. It has been for the most part been a discouraging episode to witness. Neither is the GPO candidate's 6% indicative of "attracting a significant support", but merely reflective of average GPO support provincially, much as per the 2003 election for that riding.
The polled propositions in Table 3 (of the attachment above) are problematic indeed:
"Funding should not be extended because Ontario already has a major challenge making sure that our large immigrant population fits in and shares our values" (43%, largest #, agree) -- but a major premise of more fairly extending funding, (& allowing taxpayers some access to their own tax monies!), is that their integration into the publicly-funded system would serve to allay any such fears per that proposition.
"It is risky to extend funding because public money could be used by some schools to teach extremist values" (28%, largest #, agree) -- but this kind of thing is simply disallowed where funding is extended as proposed, & what school would jeopardize hard-fought funds by stupid teaching?!
"Funding should be extended because all faith-based systems should be treated equally and the Catholic system is already funded" -- thus 48% (plurality) seem to like inequity or have no appreciation for their own provincial history.
"Funding should be extended because parents should have the freedom to pass on to their own children their own personal moral and religious values" (54% say no) -- how do "pluralistically inclusive" "spiritual" Greens like this one (note that 'spirituality' is a term much used in GPO literature)!?
I'm reluctant to invoke these words of Petra Kelly that our GPC leader quotes for us today in a serious vein, but I'm afraid they apply here to GPO: “I truly hope that the Green parties will never make the mistake of giving up their Green identity for the sake of being in power!”. It is very discouraging that on this issue too many in GPO seem unclear about certain aspects of what that identity should entail. I vote GPO & MMP regardless, for this disappointment is merely one wayward aspect, versus the countless ones of, as our GPO party leader put it, the three "industrial age" other parties.
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The Politics of Names
Submitted by Bill Hulet on 3 October 2007 - 11:16am.
People like to drop names instead of entering into substantive debate. I suppose that is just human nature, but when I joined the Greens back in 1988, I hoped that we could create a party that would help people develop a better way of doing politics.
The Greens have already made huge compromises in its values as it adapts to reality. For example, we went from a party that tried to exist without any formal leader, to one that had a pro-forma leader, to one that is uses all the trappings of her media stardom to promote the party. That horse left the barn a long time ago.
We also tried to create a party that instead of having a centralized structure was one of strong local riding associations, and was a "community of communities". That was the ideal of "grassroots democracy", one that kept as much power as possible on the local community level. Instead, the party seems to have opted for a sort of centralized structure with the idea that atomized individuals have the right to intervene at any level of decision-making---whether they represent a genuine community or not (i.e "participatory democracy".)
I admit that I am a bit annoyed that, IMHO, we have stumbled into these positions rather than consciously choose them, but that is the nature of a mass-member political organization. The more our membership grows, the more we will begin to resemble mainstream society and the political parties that represent them.
The main issue I'd like to raise is that what the Green Party is, is what we, the membership, choose to make it. Almost invariably when I hear someone start to make reference to some sort of "Green identity", they are about to make some move to deny the right of the membership to collectively make a decision that that particular individual disagrees with. At that point the nasty personal attacks sometimes start to fly and people start making inflammatory statements to the media.
There are mechanisms in place for someone to write up a policy plank, shop it around, and take it to a policy conference for the delegates to vote upon. If anyone has a problem with a GPO policy, they have that option. With the right to participate in this process comes the obligation to "agree to disagree", not start making public statements about the Greens having "sold out".
That is the difference between the GPO and the provincial Liberals, Tories, or NDP----where the leader shoots from the hip and the rank-and-file have to justify it after the fact.
"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
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nameless
Submitted by Daryl Vernon on 3 October 2007 - 5:05pm.
"People like to drop names instead of entering into substantive debate."
I'm not sure why you say this. I hope you don't have myself in mind!! The people I know mentioned above are unnamed. My very many arguments contra the GPO education policy have not been addressed, not a one, neither do they depend on the people I mentioned.
Yes, "a better way of doing politics" should be at the heart of the matter for Greens. GPO education policy is in part a departure therefrom. I got exercised because of its content, derivation & basic intent. But perhaps even more problematic is the way it has been dealt with since. Since this is our provincial matter, where names would be named, it's not for here, but it very much deals with problematic process, even with a generous understanding that GPO is a great volunteer effort.
Re leadership: I strongly feel that Green parties should move as far away from leader-centredness as possible. Fuller responsibilities for "shadow cabinet" members, even paid if doable, might be the way to go. But my own renewed activity for Green politics (we were there at the start in '83) owes a great deal to someone in our riding of great energy & dedication, which dedication to Green politics only arose in earnest for attraction to the competence & persona of our currrent GPC leader. As you say, "compromises"; even good ones, too.
Thus far whenever I've mentioned that "strong local riding associations, [...] "community of communities"" should arise for Greens by doing things other than straight political organizing together, I've drawn blank from others. Where Greens can riding by riding (or by whatever region) actually compost, garden, share vehicles, generate electricity, &c &c together, that would serve to cement local solidarity, & more important show neighbour not-yet-Greens what can be done. But in this grander context, this "atomized individual" appreciates the opportunity to speak up & speak directly. If internet cannot be used at least like this in some salutary way for politics, it's hard to see how it can be used well at all.
Glad you say, "[a]lmost invariably", for far be it for me to deny people the right to make their own collective errors. It is better sometimes to learn that way, too, the harder way. But it is foolish to wish for grown adults of presumed rationality that they be subject to this if not necessary. When many arguments are proferred & not a single one is met with any competence, that is disappointing indeed. One hopes the "hard way" doesn't take that long to play out.
My "public statement" here addressed the use & misuse of polls, not the policy per se, for which, as I agreed, this is not the proper forum. If appeal to logic & evidence is out of bounds, there's yet another ticket to the "hard way". Maintaining the "difference between the GPO and the [other parties]" is partly at issue here. I've full appreciation for the great energetic & emotional expenditure attendant upon putting oneself on the line as our party leaders are doing, a special appreciation that comes from having for so long gone out so far on a limb oneself, "leading", as it were. There are nonetheless serious issues of process to address, relating to how delegate-driven policy is actually sold. But that I've been reserving for after the election.
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The names are "Petra Kelly" and "Green identity"
Submitted by Bill Hulet on 3 October 2007 - 8:23pm.
I suppose I was being a little too elipical in my post. Both Daryl and Elizabeth used the quote from Petra Kelly, and I was reacting to the rhetorical device of assuming that one person or point of view has a monopoly on what a specific democratically organized, mass movement "really" stands for. There is a saying that all "isms" are "wasisms", which is to say that once a movement begins to be easily defined, it ceases to be a living being and instead becomes a dead husk preserved in formalin.
My concerns about atomized individuals is that unless someone has the experience of really working in a strong community, it is very easy to never understand how incredibly difficult it is to build a consensus around complex policy issues. With regard to the separate school issue, for example, I am now in a pretty heart-felt discussion with a member who is also a Jesuit priest and who is quite upset about the GPO policy. I hope that we come to some sort of accomodation over this (I've suggested that I would work with him to write up a resolution for the next policy conference), but it is damned difficult to share personal experiences and come clean with an ordained individual about why so many people feel antipathy towards the church.
Members who's only experience is either on the internet or in a lackluster EDA have no idea about what it's like to have a group of hundreds of members---all of whom see the issues slightly differently from each other, yet hold their opinions just as passionately as everyone else. At that point the easy answers start to melt like ice cream soldiers.
I don't know what your substantive questions were, why not share them on this discussion list? Communication never hurts as long as it is honest. It is only when people play games that it is counter-productive.
"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
to underdetermine is to undermine
Is Bill not (last 8:23 repost above) seriously underdetermining prospective Green policy content? What do you make of stated Green principles? If, eg for the case at hand, there are repeated Green references to 'spirituality', & by logic & evidence the policy is far out of line with such, in addition to being arguably far out of line with the tenor of much else openly stated as Green, what does a concerned member do? Stay silent, especially if self-inflicted damage was anticipated (here most urgently re MMP prospects)? The ism that is never passé in our context is a certain pragmatism, but one that necessarily enfolds some cultural leanings, which should mostly bar eg things that have demeaned Liberals in their utterly unprincipled ismlessness. (The Ontario Liberals have been disgusting on this particular contentious issue, which has ruined the campaign, abetted by dumb disproportionate media focus.)
I certainly have no illusions about simplicity in developing "consensus around complex policy issues". Ontarians seem about to vote down what a fair Assembly of their own average types would have them vote in, MMP. The presentation & research have somehow been unconvincing to a large enough number of relexive naysayers. The non-partisan logic & evidence for MMP, for all its untidiness, is unassailable. That fair sampling of Ontarians' own Citizens overwhelmingly thought so, yet the latest poll shows support flagging from the already low earlier 54%. And do you remember the Charlottetown referendum, after which I recall Laurier Lapierre justly declaring that Canadians will get what they deserve for its rejection? Thoughtful, learned consensus when far too many have been raised on TV imagery as most formative? I understand the difficulty very well. I also am not without hope that verbal interventions with intent to persuade away from problematic words & stances are still possibly effective. And a sober view does not allow for impatience either.
Your priest friend is justly upset. The church is not the issue. Education is. I doubt very much you have any justificatory arguments to persuade him to do anything other than bide his time until possible policy re-reversal. If the GPO oneboard thing is not your meltingly too easy answer, I don't know what is.
Again, education policy is not for a national forum like this. I am not playing games. Your priest friend's hurt & my own copious intervention should alert you to how serious the GPO error has been, apparently on many of your own terms.
GPO Education Policy
Your priest friend is justly upset. The church is not the issue. Education is. I doubt very much you have any justificatory arguments to persuade him to do anything other than bide his time until possible policy re-reversal. If the GPO oneboard thing is not your meltingly too easy answer, I don't know what is.
With all due respect, the church is exactly the issue. The reason why the church thinks it has to have a separate system of education is because it wishes to promote its values onto future generations. And the values that the Catholic Church promotes are, in the minds of a great many Canadians, unethical and immoral. Anyone who reads the headlines of the newspapers will know exactly what the "sticking points" are for Catholic morality: hatred of gays, protecting priests ahead of the children they abuse, opposing birth control rather than dealing with over-population, keeping women out of positions of authority, etc.
It may be the case that these are not the values of ordinary Catholics, or of the majority of people in the Church hierarchy. But it is certainly the case that these are the values of the leaders of the Catholic church---as shown by its behaviour. I personally do not believe that this is the best that the Church can be, but until it does some serious soul-searching and shows some honest contrition and willingness to change, many ordinary citizens will not trust it. That is what is fueling the support for the GPO position.
Again, education policy is not for a national forum like this. I am not playing games. Your priest friend's hurt & my own copious intervention should alert you to how serious the GPO error has been, apparently on many of your own terms.
If not this venue, then where? My experience is that many people in the church have spent so much of their life living inauthentic lives that they have lost the ability to speak "punk and plain" about these issues. If they are ashamed of speaking about these things in public, then maybe they should ask yourself about why that is the case---.
"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
Jew defends Jesuit?
No, Bill, you are not getting it at all. It is not for you to go into Catholics' teaching, esp. not here & even less when discussing the education issue at hand, which is itself for another forum (see eg copiously from http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OntarioGreens/messag... passim ; perhaps your words wandering thematically away from the issue I've primarily addressed here is what drove someone to (most improperly, maybe even outrageously) shunt our words to another blog entry?; maybe see, re Jesuits, msg #1068 near that link as well). Catholic schools are indeed at the mostly unstated heart of the matter, but far from the way you have it. If you are correct that "[t]hat is what is fueling the support for the GPO position", it is even sorrier than some of us thought ourselves! Let me talk to your Jesuit, maybe I can do better to keep him Green.
Pardon my ignorance---
Pardon my stupidity, but you started out by saying that a Green education policy should be pluralistic in nature and then finished by invoking the spirit of Petra Kelly to infer that anyone who disagrees with you is not a "real Green".
In opposition, I suggested that this is an improper rhetorical ploy designed to shut down honest debate. I then went on in a following post to suggest that the reason why so many people do not subscribe to your pluralist "post modern" vision of schooling is because they think that the values being taught at Catholic schools are immoral and damaging to society.
Once you wash out the big words and convoluted argumentation, that seems to be the gist of it.
"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken
gist not just in jest
'Pluralism' is another term, like 'spirituality', that seems de rigueur (& not only in Green circles). When (some only*) GPO-ers ostensibly argue for their current contentious policy by seriously erroneous appeal to pluralism, we've a very big problem indeed, both in the muddle jeopardizing adherence to a central principle as well as possibly full of unintended political repercussions. Thus it is not misplaced at all to mention pluralism, but in my remarks above it was commenting on the general political situation, not to get into actual detailed argumentation about how the policy's gone astray. The broader point was being made about the place & posture of certain political parties generally. For the debate more argumentatively in detail please see the suggested links, for example.
Re Kelly invocation: I just don't see how you could read what I wrote as so baldly threatening. The appeal is to logic: if Greens have stated principles that have shaky application, & worse that the shaking seems to be in the context of cruder political calculations, which many take to be anathema to Green politics, maybe even violatory of stated principle somewhere as well, certainly violating the spirit of those among us who candidly declare that our policy counts more than power, that we should be glad to see others in (unfortunately) power even steal from us; on those grounds the invocation.
How do I shut down debate? Maybe you were referring more generally to others. As for me, let me refer you yet again to that very lengthy debate at the suggested link (passim), see what transpired, then tell what you think. The silence & incompetent expressions of too many others there seems to me far more likely to bear the brunt of your criticism than anything I've said here!
Your claim about Catholic schooling is way off-base. Even if it were not, its implication that anyone else teaches what you charge about Catholic schools is even further off base. See why this is not the place to discuss this?
My gist is as you say? Come now. (Words short enough for you?)
Gimme your Jesuit, Bill.
* The policy (itself a reversal) apparently passed very narrowly, itself an indication that reticence should have been the order of the day; or is such too sweeping a counsel for your very broad constituency? -- I think logic holds for the contrary.