Greens: More Fiscally Responsible than Conservatives, more progressive than NDP

Old political thinking looks at the left-right spectrum and categorizes parties and ideas. But the thinking completely breaks down with the Green Party – because we are fiscally responsible (traditionally associated with parties on the right), socially progressive (traditionally associated with parties on the left), and committed to environmental sustainability -- in essense our very survival on this planet (unique in this).

I don’t believe that the average voter cares about – or even thinks about this left right analysis – because I’ve met voters in BC who voted Reform one election and NDP the next. I think Canadians want good government. I think they want balanced budgets. And better health care. And preventing climate change. And the reduction of gun crime and gangs. That's what they want -- and so they vote for the candidate or party they feel will best meet these needs.

Now political commentators, academics, and politicos by contrast use this left right spectrum all the time.

But the Green Party can't be fit in neatly to a box either on the right or the left. If I am upset that one in every two Canadians will now get cancer in their lifetime is that an issue on the left or the right? If I am upset that one in every five children will develop asthma before they become an adult is that a left or right issue? Climate change imperilling the fuutre of the planet is that an issue of the left or right?

At the bottom of the post I highlight polling research from Strategic Counsel, Decima and SES -- which highlight how teh Green Party draws support equally from across the political spectrum.

Greens are more Fiscally Responsible than Conservatives
For every $1 Martin's Liberal government proposed to spend on Kyoto it was spending $2 subsidizing oil and gas interests. Why do the richest companies in Canada – need taxpayers subsidies? The oil industry is receiving $1.4 billion a year in tax breaks and subsidies. Why are we subsidizing the oil industry which is making the highest profit ever in its history?

Of course the Harper’s Conservative government will continue this Liberal practice. Why? Because they are an Alberta based party with 100% of the seats in that province.

The fact that the Green Party would cut these subsidies, does this mean that we are more fiscally responsible than the Conservative and Liberal parties? Absolutely.

Greens are more Progressive than NDP
At the same time more than one million children are living in poverty in Canada. They are poor. They do need our help. Why are we subsidizing the richest companies in Canada while some four million Canadians don’t have enough money at the end of the month to put food on the table?

Every old line party committed to eliminate childhood poverty in Canada by a unanimous vote in 1989? Since then childhood poverty in Canada has increased, not decreased!! Today more than 1.2 million children are living in poverty, -- one out of every six children (see www.campaign2000.ca/rc/rc05/05NationalReportCard.pdf). “Canada’s high rate of child poverty is shocking for a country ranked among the wealthiest in the world,” states the Conference Board of Canada.

Since all the old line parties committed to eliminate childhood poverty in 1989 the number of children living in poverty has increased by 20%!!!

The NDP likes to portray itself as socially progressive, so let’s look at the record of provincial governments that have had NDP in power predominantly over the last 10 years – Manitoba, Saskatchewan and BC. All these provinces are among the highest for childhood poverty. While 17.6% of children in Canada live below the poverty line in BC its 23.9% in Manitoba it’s 22.1% and in Saskatchewan it’s 18.3% (See report above, page 4)

The number of children living in poverty has increased under NDP governments in Manitoba – in fact the incidence of child poverty in that province is greater than it was under a Conservative government???!!! www.campaign2000.ca/rc/pdf/SKpovertyreportnov02.pdf

The vast majority of single parent families living in poverty are headed by women. So this is a gender equality issue.

So is the Green Party which proposes a guaranteed annual income is it more socially progressive than the NDP?

And isn’t this a beautiful positioning: more fiscally responsible than the Cons and more socially progressive than the NDP.

Why this positioning is critical electorally
A recently reported Decima Research shows 16% of Tory voters, 25% of Liberals, and 47% of NDP voters will consider voting Green. While on the surface, it looks like we have more support from the NDP – it’s only because the NDP has a smaller support base than the Conservative and Liberals voters.

When you actually do the math – the support is pretty even across the board from all three old-line, traditional federal parties: about one million voters who have decided to support the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP will consider voting Green.

Doing the Math
The Strategic Counsel released on Oct 18 put the Conservatives and Liberals tied at 32%; the NDP at 17%; the Bloc at 11% and the GPC at 9% (see http://blog.greenparty.ca/en/node/114 for details). Assuming the voter turn out in the next election is exactly the same as the 2006 federal election at 14,815,680 (out of a total of 22,812,683 registered voters – http://enr.elections.ca/National_e.aspx) and multiplying by party support gives the number of votes each party would receive.

Column #3 shows the % of each party’s voters that are considering voting for the Green Party and column #4 shows what this actual number is.

. . . . . . . . . . . . Support. . . . Vote. . . . % Consider . . . Additional Potential
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Voting Green. . . Green Party Support
Conservatives. . 32% . . . 4,741,017. . . . 16%. . . . . . . . 758,562
Liberals. . . . . . . 32% . . . 4,741,017. . . . 25%. . . . . . .1,185,254
NDP. . . . . . . . . . 17% . . . 2,518,665. . . . 47%. . . . . . .1,183,772
Bloc. . . . . . . . . . 11%. . . .1,629,725. . . . .19%** . . . . . 309,648
Green Party. . . . . 9%. . . .1,333,411. . . . . --. . . . . . . . .- . . .
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,437,236

** the 19% figure comes from SES data presented by Nik Nanos, President of SES Research at the GPC Leadership convention in August 2006. I use it because the reporting of Decima study doesn’t cite a percentage for the Bloc.

This means that almost five million Canadian electors who actually vote are either decided or are considering voting Green!!! (1,333,411 + 3,437,236 = 4,770,647)

Why this Comparative Analysis Important
More Liberal supporters are considering voting for the Green Party than NDP supporters!

It also explains why the NDP attacks the Green Party so much. With 47% of NDP voters considering voting for Greens the NDP hierarchy is pretty much freaked out. They are deeply threatened by the rise of the Greens. The only thing that they can do: attack the Green Party -- calling us "right wing."

So the NDP keep beating the drum that the Green Party is right wing. Well, the analysis above -- wanting to cut subsidies to oil and gas interests on the political spectrum means that we are "more right wing" than the Conservatives -- we are more fiscally responsible. But is it a bad to cut subsidies to the richest companies in Canada? Is bad to stop subsidizing climate change? Is it a bad to balance the budget? The NDP rather than discuss the underlying issues clings to labels from the past.

The NDP point out that I used to be a Progressive Conservative -- as though that is somehow evil. We'll lets look at my personal positions: I was unequivocally opposed to the war in Iraq. I am opposed to breaking the long tradition as peacekeepers in the world by using our troops in offensive actions in Afghanistan. I am unequivocal in my condemnation of Mr Bush for breaking the Geneva Convention. I am unequivocally in support of Kyoto. I am unequivocal in my position in a woman's right to choice. I am unequivocal that we must address childhood poverty in Canada and end the poverty that women-headed single parent families live in. I am unequivocal in my support for ending oil and gas subsidies. I am unequivocal in my support of gay marriage. Let's play a little game, do you think that Mr Harper will be making any of these statments this year?

Greens Draw Support from across the Spectrum
If we assume that the Conservatives under Harper and that 80% of the Liberals under Ignatieff are “right” – after all Igantieff supported the war in Iraq -- then 1,706,765 supporters (758,562 + 80% x 1,185,254 = 948,203) of parties on the "right" are thinking of voting Green.

If we assume that the remaining 20% of the Liberal support is on the "left" (20% x 1,185,254 = 237,051) and add to that the NDP and Bloc which are “left” – then 1,730,470 supporters (237,051 + 1,183,772 + 309,648) of parties on the left are thinking of voting Green.

Putting these two side by side: 1,706,765 supporters of parties on the "right" are thinking of voting Green, while 1,730,470 supporters of parties on the left are thinking of voting Green. Hmmmmm -- seems to me that the Green Party is perceived as neither left nor right by voters -- but the only choice if we are going to have a future for our children and grandchildren.

In other words, we draw support equally from across the political spectrum.

Nik Nanos of SES Research has polling data that shows that 36% of voters who identified the Green Party as their second choice during the last federal election were Conservative voters; 29% NDP; 19% Bloc and 13% Liberal. So again adding this all up NDP + Bloc + 20% Liberal = 51% while Conservative and 80% of Liberal = 49%.

So the reinforcement of the left-right spectrum debate comes pretty much entirely out of the NDP who feel threatened -- as well they should.