Can anyone help explain the current NDP polling numbers?

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Par Matthew Piggott le 15 Septembre 2009 - 4:30pm

OK much of the current speculation about NDP cooperation (forming a coalition!?!?!?!) with the Conservatives is based on the fact that NDP seems to be low in the polls which seems to be because of Liberals strength(Greens and Conservatives haven't changed much).  For example Ipsos Reid had the NDP at 12% with Tories ahead by 9% (39-30):
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4526

This doesn't seem to make much sense to me (but who said politics was rational right?). 

The reason I ask, is because I don't see how the Ignatieff branded Liberals would appeal to an NDP supporter.  Certainly a more right leaning Liberal would encourage left-Liberals to swith to NDP.  Or maybe the NDP losses support to the Liberals when the Liberals have what appears to a "strong" candidate likely of becoming PM, regardless of ideology or policy?  Perhaps most people like voting for a perceived "winner" which is why Jack would have "run for PM"???

Or maybe I've got my analysis wrong.  Is the NDP losing support to the Conservatives or the Greens?(Or Bloc?) Any opinions/clarification would help.

Also, I never take one poll seriously, a 5 poll rolling average provides a much more accurate reflection of the current sentiment.  The Globe and Mail used this during the last election with much success.  See a good link here:

http://paulitics.wordpress.com/poll-index/national/

             5 poll average    Last Election  Change
Cons            33.9                37.6           -3.7
Libs              30.2               26.2             4.0
NDP             16.2                18.2             -2
Green           10.5                6.8              3.7
Bloc             8.6                  10.0            -1.4

By the way, despite what I've posted above, shouldn't politics be about ideas and vision rather than teasing out information from inherently flawed insessant polling?

Matthew Piggott
Kitchener Centre

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Is it the polling numbers?

Submitted by Bill Hulet on 15 Septembre 2009 - 6:44pm.

Matthew:

Is it the polling numbers?  I heard that the NDP blew their budget in the last election and haven't had time to build up their war chest.  Don't forget that when corporate donations were forbidden, so were ones from trade unions.   The other issue to consider is that the NDP provincial and federal parties are unified (i.e. you cannot join just one, but have to join both.)  It might be that they blew a lot of money in BC with very little to show for it.  (I know, you can't transfer money from provincial to federal, but they come from the same donation base.)

Bill Hulet

"There is always an easy solution to every human problem--neat, plausible, and wrong." H.L. Mencken

The budget is there

Submitted by Mark Taylor on 15 Septembre 2009 - 8:56pm.

I believe that the NDP is only trying to ACT like they are trying to make Parliament work as opposed to actually making it work.  Bill, you've been around long enough to know that 2% is nothing come election time and not a deterrent for them.

As for the money... the NDP spent the full limit (~$18M) last time and should have got back their election rebate (~$9M) back already.  If they operated their office off of donations only and banked their vote subsidy (2.5M votes x $1.95 ~ $5M), they should have a healthy campaign account (~$13B).  Of course, that's a big IF.

 

Mark Taylor (Cypress Hills - Grasslands)

http://ReportonGreens.blogspot.com

This statement is purely my own opinion and no way is to be mistaken for the viewpoints of the party

It's a riding by riding issue

Submitted by Steve May on 15 Septembre 2009 - 11:10pm.

The NDP is hyper-aware that some of the gains they made in the last election were in ridings where Liberal voters simply didn't show up at the polls.  As a result, the NDP did very well in Northern Ontario, for example, which has been a bit of a battleground in the past between the Libs and NDP.  In the last election, the NDP took all but one of these ridings, which contributed significantly to their total count.  If in the next election, the NDP were to lose half of these ridings (likely to the Liberals), there would be little opportunity to make up these losses elsewhere.

Having said that, while I think the NDP might be vulnerable in a few Northern Ontario ridings, I think they've been doing a decent job of shoring up their support in this region.  Nevertheless, why jeopardize what you have at the expense of what you might lose?

Ultimately, though, it's not the national, or even provincial polling numbers which have spooked the NDP: it's more a question of what they stand to lose vs. what they stand to gain, riding by riding.  And the NDP thinks that they will lose in more locations than they will gain, hence their concern.

I don't agree.  I think the NDP stand to save the ridings they gained the last time (largely) and make some breakthroughs elsewhere, simply because they are not the Liberals or the Conservatives.  Voters, I believe, are really starting to get annoyed with the Blue and Red parties, and will be looking for something different this time out.   A smart campaign by the NDP may pay dividends.

Unless we can steal their thunder.  But that will require a smart campaign by the Greens.

"Sudbury" Steve May