Guelph Poll: Green Support up 120%; Greens Blow by NDP & star candidate early in campaign
A poll released by a Winnipeg firm today shows the Green Party in the first two weeks of the campaign had already blown by the NDP, and is in contention to win the seat in Guelph. Since then the Green Party has increased our identified support in Guelph by more than 50%!
Party . . . . . . .. . . . 2008 . . . . . . . . 2006 . . . . . . . . .%
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Poll . . . . . . . .Result. . . . . . .Difference
Liberals . . . . . . . .36.60%. . . . . . .38.39%. . . . . . . -4.66%
Conservatives . . .26.35%. . . . . . .29.75% . . . . . . -11.43%
Green . . . . . . . . .19.22%. . . . . . . .8.72%. . . . . . .+120.4%
NDP . . . . . . . . . . .17.77%. . . . . . .22.00%. . . . . . .-19.23%
The poll was taken by a Winnipeg firm you can see it at http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/August2.... . The poll was taken on July 27 and August 13.
Here’s the great news:
1) Support for all the old-line, traditional parties has fallen, while Green Party support has risen by more than 120%!!
2) The Green Party has held onto all its' support from the Ontario provincial election where we won almost 10,000 votes and 19.5% of the vote.
3) Despite having a “star” candidate and spending almost $300,000 in the riding (a rumoured more than $80,000 pre-writ, plus $91,000 campaign plus $91,000 from NDP head office) the NDP is in fourth place -- and has lost almost 20% of its support from 2006.
So the really big news from this poll is that the Guelph Green campaign have blown by the NDP.
4) The poll was done early in the election campaign (July 27 for half the sample and August 13 for the other half -- so the "average" would be August 4 -- which is more than two weeks old. At this time the Green Party campaign was still ramping up.
For instance, the Green Party's first piece of literature to every household only went out on August 8 -- so half results are based on a time when voters hadn't received anything from the Greens. By contrast, the other parties collectively spend hundreds of thousands before the election was called on print and radio ads, dropped literature to all households, held free public BBQs in the park, had their party leader drop by numerous times, etc.
After the poll was conducted, we increased our identified support in Guelph by 25% in a single weekend!! And by election day our identified support will have more than doubled from where it was at the time the poll was conducted!!
We are now well ahead of where this poll put us two weeks ago.
But what's really important to note is that the Greens as of two weeks ago had already erased any advantage the NDP had of spending $100,000 pre-writ and having a star candidate.
5) Most important of all: none of the returning students (2nd, 3rd and 4th year) were included in this poll. The Green Party won the majority of polls on campus in the London North Centre by-election.
6) The big MO. The campaign to elect Mike Nagy has the momentum over all the old-line political parties. Green Party support from 2006 is up more than 120%.
If you ever wonder which campaign is the coolest, most fun, watch this at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6fn0A0Qq34
7) It’s all going to come down to Getting Out the Vote. Every pollster I have talked to recognizes that getting out the vote is going to determine who wins this by-election. And here’s the great news: The Green Party is going to have the biggest, the best GOTV effort in Green Party history!
8) I believe the Conservative support in this poll is overstated. In our canvassing door to door we have been finding that many of the electors who formerly identified themselves as Conservative saying that they are now undecided. Gary Brown found four in a single poll last weekend. They are upset that Harper fired the locally, democratically nominated candidate Brent Barr (he was the Conservative candidate in the 2006 election).
In canvassing we have has found a large number of former Progressive Conservative voters who are upset over this have decided to vote Green. I don't feel this trend was caught in this poll.
The Conservatives aren't going to win this riding for a few reasons:
a) When the riding went blue pre-1993 when the riding boundaries were different. The riding was part urban and part rural. It was the rural parts that voted blue. The riding boundaries were re-defined and now is entirely urban. The riding even had a different name when it was blue -- Guelph-Wellington. So it's an entirely different riding than it was when it was held by Conservatives.
b) When it was blue -- the riding was held by Progressive Conservatives. Mr. Harper is working to eliminate all references and actions from being progressive.
c) Having Conservative HQ fired Brent Barr.
9) The Liberal support continues to fall significantly -- from 48.2% in 2000 to 44.6% in 2004 to 38.4% in 2006 to 36.5% in this poll in 2008.
10) While I have some questions about the poll – such as understanding how undecided voters were factored in, this is great news for the Green Party showing that in the first two weeks of the campaign before our big marketing efforts, we had already surpassed the NDP, and were hot on the heels of the Conservatives!!
Closing clarifications & Comments:
The Guelph Greens or Green Party of Canada did not pay for this poll. I talked with the pollster, Allan Bruinooge, and learned no one had commissioned the poll, he conducted it on his own.
This poll is really, really good news for the Green Party.
It’s really, really bad news for the NDP.
It’s also bad news for the Conservatives. Allan Bruinooge is the brother of a Conservative MP – so if he says the Conservatives are 10% behind the Liberals as of two weeks ago it must be true.
It’s also bad news for the Liberals because their support continues to fall from more than 48% in 2000 to 36% as of two weeks ago.
So here’s the path to a Green Party win. We only have to switch 4.5% of the support from each of the other parties to vote Green this once.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Poll
Liberals . . . . . . . .36.60%
Conservatives . . .26.35%
Green . . . . . . . . .19.22%
NDP . . . . . . . . . . .17.77%
As of two weeks ago we only had to switch
· 4.5% of soft Liberal support to Greens – so Liberals would fall to 32.1% while the Greens rise to 23.72%
· another 4.5% of soft NDP support to the Green Party – so the Greens rise to 28.22% (23.72 + 4.5%) while the NDP fall to 13.27% where they were in the provincial
· 4.5% of Conservative support to Green – so the Greens rise to 32.72% (28.22% + 4.5%) while the Conservatives fall to 22.35%.
We have already been doing this for the last two weeks in our door to door canvassing.
But we still need to continue pushing hard to win this riding. Here are five ways you can help:
1) Move to Guelph for the remainder or a portion of the campaign. Greens from all across Canada have come. GPO Deputy Leader Judy Smith Torrie moved to Guelph for a week. Jason Hammond had moved to Guelph for the entire campaign. GPO Deputy Leader Shane Jolley is coming for the last week of the campaign. Louis Betrand from Durham is in Guelph this week. The local Greens will find you a billet to stay at – and there’s food every day in the office. Be part of this most exciting campaign. If you're coming let Martin Lavictoire mlavicto@yahoo.ca (519) 362-8872 know.
2) Come to Guelph for a weekend or a few weekdays. The campaign office is 73 Gordon St (corner of Gordon and Wellington) phone # (519) 820-6899.
http://maps.google.ca/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=73.... Socialize Friday and Saturday night – and campaign in the day. The Guelph Greens will find you a place to stay. Let Martin Lavictoire mlavicto@yahoo.ca (519) 362-8872 know you’re coming.
3) Canvass from home by phone. Use the Virtual Phone Bank (called GRIMES) this amazing system lets Greens all across Canada win our first seat. This is key. More than 2,000 calls have already been made by a team of 16 people. But if we had a few hundred Greens making calls we could easily reach 10 times more Guelph electors. It’s easy and fun to canvass by phone. Voters need to talk to someone from the party to convince them a) why it’s important to vote Green; b) dispel some of the myth the other parties are spreading about us. Call Mark Kersten 613 422 4515 mark.kersten@greenparty.ca or at the campaign office at (519) 820-6899.
4) Donate. This is going to be the biggest spending campaign in Green Party history – the maximum is $91,000. We have already raised more than $50,000 but have another $40,000 to go. To help out call (519) 820-6899 and make a donation by credit card. Of course you'll receive 75% of your donation off your federal taxes payable of any donation up to $400.
Alternatively, you can send a cheque made out to Tara Treanor, Official Agent for the Mike Nagy Campaign and mail it to:
The Mike Nagy Campaign Office
73 Gordon Street
Guelph, Ontario N1H 4H5
5) Support Mike's campaign on Facebook at http://www.new.facebook.com/pages/Mike-Nagy/136616... by signing up as a supporter.
Winning the by-election will have a major impact:
· The Reform Party jumped from no seats in 1988 to 52 seats in 1993 – for one simple reason. The party won a by-election in between and with one seat, Preston manning was included in the TV leaders debate and Reform’s vote jumped from 275,000 (1988) to 2,500,000 (1993). We can experience the same explosive type of growth if we win Guelph.
· Being in the TV leaders debate would give $10 million of media coverage to the issues we feel are so important and not being properly addressed. In the 2006 election in six hours of leaders debates – climate change, the war in Afghanistan were not even debated!!! Now the parties are telling us they're concerned about these!
Here are a few blogs you may want to read:
Tip of Iceberg, Tipping Point & Power of Green Party -- Shifting Politics http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6589
Coolest Green Video Ever!!! Groove in Guelph http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6550
Guelph Going Green a Golden Opportunity: Guelph Mercury opinion piece http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6548
By-elections called for Sept 8! Guelph’s Going Green!! http://greenparty.ca/en/node/6201
- Jim Harris's blog
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Comments
Polling firm
Unfortunately (perhaps, because we might be further ahead) KlrVu is widely discounted in the blogosphere.
http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.com/2008/07/klrvu-e...
--
My blog is www.abandonedstuff.com
Excellent blog on Democratic Space on Guelph poll
If you're interested in reading about the poll's background you can read Greg Morrow's excellent blog at http://democraticspace.com/blog/2008/08/klr-vu-gue...
Greg's initial projections of Green Party support are low in my opinion because he didn't factor in the Green Party provincial support at 19.5% just 10 months ago. And the fact that this federal by-election campaign will have 10 times more volunteer hours invested in it than the provincial campaign.
We know that we are now above the point of the Klrvu poll.
Guelph by-election now a 2-way Race Greens vs. Liberals
Now that the Guelph by-election is down to the wire a new poll shows that it's become a two-way race between Green Party candidate Mike Nagy and the Liberals. The poll was conducted by Oraclepoll.
Green support is double that of Conservatives; triple that of NDP.
Campaign with Elizabeth in Guelph Sat Sept 6 & Sun Sept 7
Help Guelph Greens in Final Weekend Push
The Guelph Greens need your help in this final weekend push. Elizabeth May is coming to Guelph Saturday & Sunday -- come and campaign with Elizabeth in Guelph.
The campaign office is 73 Gordon St (corner of Gordon and Wellington) phone # (519) 820-6899. http://maps.google.ca/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=73... .... Socialize Saturday night – and campaign in the day. The Guelph Greens will find you a place to stay if you need one. Let Martin Lavictoire mlavicto@yahoo.ca (519) 362-8872 know you’re coming.
Canvass from home by phone. Use the Virtual Phone Bank (called GRIMES) this amazing system lets Greens all across Canada win our first seat. This is key. Call Mark Kersten 613 422 4515 mark.kersten@greenparty.ca or at the campaign office at (519) 820-6899.
Back to the Poll
The actual standings are: Frank Valeriote, Liberals 38.4%; Mike Nagy Green Party 24.2%; Gloria Kovach, Conservatives 12.6%; Tom King, NDP 8.0%. A further 16.7% of voters are undecided.
The poll, has a margin of error of +/-5.7%, which means that the Liberals could be 38.4% - 5.7% = 32.7% and the Greens could be 24.2% + 5.7% = 29.9%.
The poll was conducted by Oraclepoll September 1 and 2 among Guelph electors who said they were certain to vote.
The Greens have the momentum as a staggering 47% of Guelph voters have either already decided to vote Green or are considering it.
The Guelph Greens have been shown a poll that revealed that 17.1% of Guelph electors who said they'd vote Liberal were doing so because they fear/dislike Harper/the Conservatives/Gloria Kovach.
That explains the strange statement Liberal candidate Frank Valeriote made in the last 10 days about voting in this by-election to avoid a Harper majority government.
Valeriote knows, as does everyone else, that in this Guelph by-election there is only one seat at stake -- and the balance of power in Ottawa will not change as a result of this by-election outcome -- it will remain a minority Conservative government. But the Liberals are obviously trying to scare this 17.1% of electors who had indicating they'd vote Liberal into not changing their minds.
But now that Gloria Kovach is at 12% and there's no fear of the Conservatives winning, the Greens can win this by-election (assuming a general is not called).
This past week in Guelph the Liberals took out full page ads stressing their environmental policy. The Liberals know that Guelph's Going Green and are now running against us.
The Guelph Greens have heard from Guelph Liberals in the know in the that the Liberal's internal polling shows the Greens in second place.
Now that there’s no chance of Gloria Kovach/Conservatives winning that frees that 17.1% of the Liberals support to cast a historic vote for the Green Party.
And among those voters who are considering changing their mind before the Election – the Green Party is the #1 choice for Guelph electors to switch to.
Overwhelmingly, Guelph voters say the environment is the most important issue: 50% rating it as the #1 or #2 issue vs. 37% for the economy and 28% for health care.
The #1 issue: overwhelmingly, the environment
Issue . . . . . . . . . Most . . . . .2nd most . . . 1st + 2nd
. . . . . . . . . . . . Important . . .important . . . total
Environment . . . . .29.3% . . . . 20.3% . . . . . 49.6%
Economy . . . . . . . 20.7% . . . . 16.8% . . . . . 36.8%
Health care . . . . . 13.3% . . . . .14.7% . . . . . 28.0%
The last two points explains why Libs have taken out full page ads on environment and quoting Elizabeth and trying to paint themselves as Green.
82% of Guelph voters want to see Elizabeth May in debates.
The Oraclepoll survey was conducted on September 1 and 2 with 300 electors who say they are certain to vote. The polls margin of error is +/-5.7%, 19 times out of 20.
Coverage of this new poll in the Guelph Mercury at http://www.guelphtribune.ca/news/article/142254
The ndp do not matter...the liberals do!
I am sorry but the ndp (in my mind any away) are soon to be proved irrelevant or I have wasted a lot of time needlessly.
Its the liberals at 36 % we have to work on and about
We must start talking about our differences and our unique policies unless you all just think the weather is really gonna do it for you and us.
I just don't understand it... I really don't
How many more dead Canadians in Afghanistan will there be before what we said all along(senlis council) is in the end used as an idea? any idea?
Are we all so sanitized?
Do you all know how many are now dead?
What if that was your 24 year old boy?
Speaking of Boy...... wont that and they all have been a waste if I am right?
How many more billions wasted beating up Canadian teenagers over benign plants they can get easier than booze or cigarettes as yes now they will want both of those ...forever... with a life ruined now with a criminal conviction...
for what ?
over 800,000 people out there now like this (by the way yes they can VOTE!!!)
what would 800,000 votes do for us?
We talk about how to explain the policy the liberals stole from us instead of understanding the intelligence of the voters and point out the silly liberal bantering of only a "partial theft" yes!.... as we then sway them to come out for us as we now show all our other GREAT ideas..... that no one else cares to even mention in this by-election
Crime has been dropping for 5 years
harper is a doom and gloom meany
hiding a deficit
and praying for a full election before the cracks show
Wasting how much money ? on all these flyer's coming to my door in BC and we aren't even part of the by election.
Dion is looking for flash light batteries to finish reading vision green under his blankets and gives the impression his mind could change by the next leaders review
Thank goodness Mr Dion is so seemingly misunderstood or we would be in a lot more trouble ....I would say
Hey we all know that we are the only ones with the "complete plan"......
but more importantly I hope with the guts...to say it..
I hope one of you eventually say so!!!!!!
Cheers All
And who are those new voters if the rest doesnt add up to our gains?
Great job with the motivation any way Jim as what you say is true....
but bragging about beating the ndp on their way down is really not where we need to be today.....I would just be Green and share
(disclaimer:do not be confused and think shavluk is the green party talking...hahha)
http://ridings.greenparty.ca/article285.html?&MMN_...
juror.ca
endprohibition@telus.net
Polls are a snapshot in time
A Guelph Mercury article discusses the poll.
The article headline is misleading: it reads "Poll says Liberals will win in Guelph."
This is completely inaccurate. A poll is a snapshot in time. If the election had been on August 4 the Liberals would have won.
But the election is on September 8. And a lot can happen in five weeks. The second piece of Green Party literature just went out to every household today. And there are more surprises in the Green Party campaign to come!
The Green Party campaign has been gaining significant ground since the poll was taken.
It's still interesting to read the article at http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/370682
Most interesting is the NDP are trying to discredit the poll because it shows them behind the Green Party.
headline
That headline is pretty bad.
"Most interesting is the NDP are trying to discredit the poll because it shows them behind the Green Party."
Except the poll isn't credible. Not because it's NDP saying it's not right, but the polling firm KlrVu is not trusted by the most trustworthy bloggers in Canada.
That doesn't mean the Green Party isn't ahead of the NDP, just that we can't use this poll as an accurate measure.
--
My blog is www.abandonedstuff.com
Don't be Contemptuous Prior to Investigation
Hey John
Just because bloggers dismiss the methodology of this poll doesn't mean you should accept what they write.
The company uses automated polling. In the 2004 US Presidential election two companies -- Rasmussen and SurveyUSA -- used this same methodology and their polling results were similarly derided. But in the end this new methodology proved more accurate than traditional polling. You can read some of the debate and in depth analysis in a Slate article online at http://www.slate.com/id/2110860/
And to understand how different pollsters use different methodologies you can see http://www.slate.com/id/2108778
A typical sample size for a riding poll is 300 with +/- 5.6%. The surveys are done over the phone by interviewers.
In this particular poll the sample size was more than 3,200 -- with an accuracy of +/- 2%.
Before dismissing the poll because of what some bloggers -- whoever they are -- dive into the methodology. Personally I believe the poll is accurate, for the time period it was conducted. Since then Green Party support has increased -- I know so because I am tracking the IDed support daily in Guelph and it's risen substantially since this poll was conducted.
Now the NDP is going to be very, very upset about this poll -- because a rumoured $100,000 pre writ in the riding and having a star candidate -- has not slowed the rapid rise of the Green Party. So they will be looking for every reason possible to discredit the poll. I've seen some people writing about other polls this company performed where they didn't like the topic, or outcome, or who the client who paid for the work.
Source history matters
Jim,
Don't discount bloggers just because they are bloggers.
They HAVE done investigation. KlrVu plagairised their website, and I pointed everyone to reading that specifically here:
http://bouquetsofgray.blogspot.com/2008/07/klrvu-e...
To take their other work at face value as honest, would be a mistake.
Again, I'm not saying their numbers are wrong, but I'm saying don't take their word for it.
--
My blog is www.abandonedstuff.com
The Guelph Mercury changes the headline online
http://guelphmercury.blogs.com/guelphvotes/
Poll could help
If Liberal voters feel 'safe' that they will win, but are frustrated with Dion's "will I or won't I" election talk (or any other aspect of Dion) then many might stay at home or do a protest vote for either Green or NDP depending on their leanings. If CPC voters feel it is a blowout (10 points is a fair margin on the surface) then they might not bother voting or, again, lodge a protest vote to send Harper a message.
In many respects this poll might have been just at the right level to help. Liberals with a clear lead, NDP falling to 4th, CPC in a weak 2nd place. All these elements make getting the vote out on Monday September 8th all the more important. What I would love to see is the data from each of the two polling periods and compare the two to see who has momentum and who is losing it the fastest (I suspect we have it and the NDP is losing it the quickest based on the last election results).
Wellington-Halton Hills
Growing to win - Thanks, Mike
I really liked the quote attributed to Mike in the Guelph Mercury article that "his campaign is 'growing to win'". Another great quote which I intend to put to work in my campaign! Thanks, Mike.
Jim Johnston,
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Opinions expressed are my own.
Poll insight: 24% of Guelph electors undecided as of July 13
In the first set of responses on July 27 the poll was set up so that undecided voters could not respond -- they had to either indicate which party they'd be voting for or hang up.
In the second round the pollster added in an undecided option and 24% of respondents were undecided.
This obviously will play a huge factor in the outcome of the election. As of July 13, 24% of Guelph electors were undecided. That shed's some new light on this poll. It highlights the importance of canvassing every household, talking to every voter and the Green Party's huge effort to get out our vote.
unproud of blow-by
A too common self-congratulatory theme around here seems to be at the expense of the NDP, as if they were the most important antagonist to pursue. This is strange, since policy overlap is significant, and historic placement as effective dissenters should be something of inspiration to Greens rather than something to displace. We should rather seek to complement. (Cf http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3293 re Australia.) Mere pointing out number changes is one thing, but Greens are capable of comparing figures without apparent gleeful poking at the NDP.
I expect the NDP to do relatively better with their "star" recruitments in other by-elections, Tom King's "stardom" not quite recognized enough. One benefit from a poorer relative showing for the NDP in Guelph after so much expenditure might be that they will begin to reconsider overall national strategy of generally ignoring Greens. Best of all would be for joint campaigning regarding PR, (which floundering Liberals might even sensibly join), which would be in the interests of the NDP as much or more than GPC, and certainly altogether most of all for the country.
It is regrettable that GPC does take proportionately more away from NDP voters than others. Consider that if the other two dropped in Guelph as much as NDP seems to be doing and even if the NDP drop were lessened, it would be even more interesting for GPC. I'd hesitate about pride in "blowing by" the NDP, esp. in Ont. as some of that seems to be related to some unseemly elements in the recent prov. campaign.
Best wishes nonetheless to Mike Nagy, who is justly bound to be encouraged by his expected double-digit electoral result regardless of the NDP.
Excellent Point
Good point Daryl about our party's interaction with the NDP both at the official and member to member level. We definitely have more in common with the NDP when compared to the Liberals and Conservatives and should thus work together on more issues instead of opposing each other constantly. On a personal level I know many young people in the NDP and in several cases has found it counterproductive to spend time arguing amongst ourselves when other parties should be considered the "real" opponents. I would like to write more about this later as my views on this issue have evolved as I've thought more about it over the last year.
human nature
The antagonism is really astonishing to newcomers to the party, because we don't know the bad blood that has been cultivated on a personal level between so many different people in different parties. The way I see it though, is we'll be working closely with the NDP and Liberals within the next decade to wrestle power back from ReformaTories, so even if some in the NDP are antagonistic toward us, we should build bridges whenever possible.
--
My blog is www.abandonedstuff.com
Explaining NDP Animosity: a critical issue & post
Here's an inside look at the NDP's tactics towards the Green Party.
In summary the NDP can be expected to get more aggressive with the Green Party as the GPC continues to rise. In the March 17 by-elections the Green Party won 11.2% of the vote in the three urban ridings while the NDP got 11.3%. The Green Party has been statistically tied with the NDP in many polls from different polling companies (see http://greenparty.ca/en/node/3149 Green's Support Surpasses NDP's in Canada for First Time Ever: GPC is 3rd National Party)
As a result the NDP is feeling very threatened and is engaged in negative campaigning against the Green Party at the riding level. (More about this in the next post).
When I was leader there was in the 2004 a CBC program entitled The Great Canadian Job Interview. It’s still listed on CBC’s web site at http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes2004/studentvotes/int...
It was shot in Newfoundland and was "designed" by youth, for youth, and by youth. The CBC got all sorts of youth groups together to sponsor the event.
Given that the Green Party has a larger percentage of support from youth than any other party as a percentage of our overall support, given that in 2004 the youngest candidate in Canada was an 18 year old Green Party candidate many of the youth groups "sponsoring" this TV show wanted to have the Green Party included.
The leaders of the Bloc, Conservative, Liberal and NDP were invited. The Bloc and Conservative either didn't respond or said they couldn't make it. Only the Liberal and NDP accepted the invitation.
In the end only Paul Martin, the Liberal Prime Minister at the time and Jack Layton, the NDP leader attended.
But the youth groups organizing the event kept agitating for the Green Party to be included. The response from the NDP and Liberals? They would pull out from appearing if the Green Party was included.
I know because I talked to the youth groups after the event.
The youth groups then had to choose as to whether to have the show go ahead and get some coverage of issues we felt were critical that weren't being discussed by the traditional parties in the campaign and exclude the Greens who were talking about these issues, or demand that the Greens be included and have the event cancelled.
The NDP will go to exceptional lengths to prevent the Greens' voice from being heard – while publicly all the time talking about wanting democratic reform, being principle-based and being concerned about the environment.
The Liberals in 2004 were equally guilty. Now, thankfully, the party recognizes the Greens should be in the televised leaders debates.
Experience in British Columbia
The NDP has consistently refused to work with or cooperate with the Green Party.
In the 2001 provincial election in British Columbia the Green Party surged into second place following the TV Leaders debate which the GPBC leader Adriane Carr was included in. In her riding of Powell River Sunshine Coast, Adriane was in second place and had the momentum.
Just after the TV debate with NDP having collapsed the NDP had to make some strategic choices.
The NDP had the option to invest more resources in two ridings that they ultimately lost by 100 votes – which if they had won would have doubled the number of seats in the provincial legislature (from 2 to 4). Winning four seats would have meant the NDP would have retained its official party status in the legislature and over the course of the parliament received millions of dollars of resources in the form or legislative support, research, staff, etc. That was choice #1.
Choice #2 was investing additional resources to into Adriane’s riding to stop her momentum and prevent her from winning.
Which do you think the NDP chose?
The NDP chose option #2.
The Green Party and the NDP have radically different views on many policy items:
Climate Change
Jack Layton was elected leader of the NDP bringing new hope to the party. On the issue of climate change he promised to campaign.
But Layton chose to pull the plug on Minority Liberal government elected in 2004 on the eve of the most important international conference on climate change in Montreal. Again principle and practice vary widely.
While I was leader we talked about carbon trading and using market mechanisms to address pollution and carbon emissions. The NDP vociferously criticized me and the party as being right wing. Instead they said only government mandates would work.
Now guess what? The NDP is advocating carbon trading (a market mechanism) and repudiating pricing carbon (a carbon tax).
This has been the final straw for hordes of environmentalist. David Suzuki said to oppose the carbon tax is “plain nonsense.” See http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNew...
Elizabeth blasted the NDP on their stance –http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080525/carbon_tax_080525?s_name=&no_ads=
The day the NDP opposed the carbon tax a good friend of mine who is a deep environmentalist and worked for years with Jack Layton personally emailed me and said “This is the final straw, I can never vote NDP again.”
Auto Company Subsidies
The Green Party opposes the $1 billion of subsidies given to Ford, GM and Chrysler in Ontario. This $1,000,000,000 of subsidies was given by the federal and Ontario governments, ostensibly to protect and create jobs. But these three companies have collectively laid off 20,000 workers. So not even $1 billion protected a single job. The NDP supported these hand outs because these car companies have unionized workers.
Now I believe that unionized workers would be just as happy making fuel efficient vehicles. The Green Party has always insisted on increasing mandated fuel efficiency standards as the only way forward. (as an aside do you know that if every vehicle in North American got the same fuel efficiency as my Toyota Prius we would not have to import any oil into North America?!)
I will post more later, but if you want to really understand what today’s NDP is up to read these two posts:
http://www.walrusmagazine.com/articles/2006.05-pol...
or
http://www.jameslaxer.com/2006/08/neo-conned-how-n...
this first piece appeared in The Walrus in 2006 and in my opinion is the most important piece of analysis on today’s NDP. I am not sure how the two versions differ the first one is as it appeared and the second is Laxer’s final version he submitted.
Basically it says that Layton was happy to defeat the Liberal minority government and have the NDP’s agenda be driven backwards by Harper because he got a short term bonus of 10 extra seats. Put in black and white the NDP strategists would rather have a climate denying Harper who wants to press ahead with the war in Afghanistan, attack the INSITE program in the lower East side of Vancouver, kill the day care program, kill the Kelowna Accord, all for 10 short term NDP seats.
By contrast with the Liberal minority the NDP was actually able to exert influence and the government agenda.
Laxer has written an update of this at http://www.thismagazine.ca/issues/2008/07/lookback...
animosity & approach
"NDP is feeling very threatened" -- as i said way back at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3615#comment-3000 ,
"NDP strategists would be sensible in apparent complacency in the face of this apparent drop in support, because they are most concerned about actual seats & competitive ridings rather than overall vote count."
"and is engaged in negative campaigning against the Green Party at the riding level" -- seems true, but no reason to play it like them, because, apart from other reasons, they have their unmovable core supporters, and those considering the move to GPC should mostly not appreciate the dig at their current party ; thus to attract prospective NDPers it is counterproductive to speak too negatively, and prospects of any future real co-operation is negatively affected for those remaining NDP-ers, who have as important and urgent a deep perspective as Greens, on top of it all with those latter seeing the anti-NDP stuff, surely in some legitimate senses, as just so much "right wing"-ish pandering &, effectively, vote-splitting.
"They would pull out" -- but Greens should separate from these usual grosser political tactics by effecting a certain aloofness that those youth might understand better than resorting to more of the same partisan digs -- be somewhat aloof & any "blow by" might be swifter & easier...
"NDP will go to exceptional lengths" -- there is unfortunate irony in their behaviour, but is there nothing in the GPC that might justify some people's reticence, esp. NDP-ers given their history & accomplishments, about admitting GPC with full honour to the club?; i've witnessed some rough political play even around this blogsite (eg see first lines of http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/2822#comment-1976 ) that i'd have thought Greens should be above, the kind of behaviour that must have turned off some sensitive Green activists before my recent renewed activity...; but there can be said to be a time for this, a time for that, i am not exactly judging just now
"Experience in British Columbia" -- a degree of separation between federal & provincial svp; eg in the Ontario that I know, there is a rather different culture pertaining among its GP than a perceivably more salutary one in GPC; also in that B.C. disastrous context for them there might have been a legitimate fear about imminent displacement by GPBC, so maybe it was not such a bad move for them vs the "party status" thing, to go after the Greens instead (and they did come back next time, didn't they)
"principle and practice vary widely" -- fair enough, but that's no reason to go at them more than the worse others, some of whom put "principle and practice" rather dangerously together!
"“This is the final straw, I can never vote NDP again.”" -- I have only voted once for NDP (prov.) as protest against outrageous treatment of the Rae govt.; again policy flips and accusations about right wing are not reasons to go after them more than the others
I remember Murray Dobbin's hit piece on our previous GPC leader, which I thought, at the time, was unfair & inappropriate. That kind of personal dig, & others I've seen, motivate understandably negatively for sure. But that doesn't make the tactic in question here any less questionable.
"Auto Company Subsidies " -- i recall, before there was a green party, once at a U. de Montréal cafeteria being approached by a someone who must have figured (correctly) he discerned a fellow anglo, who sought to recruit me for the NDP, but I just could not, and highest in my mind were attitudes towards the Chrysler bailout, which I instinctively opposed (a word on more of the same I put at http://www.greenparty.ca/en/node/3259 & comment following)
"have the NDP’s agenda be driven backwards by Harper because he got a short term bonus of 10 extra seats" -- one can doubt political acumen but it is hardly arguable that they foresaw their agenda so driven; did Martin make the right calls the way he handled the sponsorship thing, which was of greatest moment at the time...one can question all around; people are blaming the NDP these days for not going after the govt. as they could, but ultimately it has been the Liberals who are at fault on prolonging parliament this time, for their own sad reasons
I think it would be rather easy to reframe any good news coming out of Guelph as approach to the top two parties as much as or rather than blowing by ultimately lesser enemies.
Question on Green support data, Jim
Thanks, Jim, for your as-usual well thought out comments. I'm finding it very important to emphasize to Canadians that the Green Party isn't just another NDP or Liberal Party clone. We, interestingly, have a broad base of support, and Vision Green has things that most people can identify with. This is and will continue to be one of our strengths.
Now, I've heard repeatedly that we've done a study showing that GPC support takes equally from all parties. Does anyone have this data? I would love to use it in the campaign.
Also, note to NDP sympathizers: though I've had great respect for my provincial and federal NDP candidates, I would not support the NDP. The Greens have members all over the spectrum and remember that many of us don't fit very well with the left side of the spectrum. Please don't assume there is general support the NDP among Greens. Thanks and good luck campaigning to everyone!
Meet a long-time Dipper whose first vote was Liberal
I, too, would like to see such a profile of our membership, Aden, if one exists.
I joined the Greens after a few months away from active EDA politics with the NDP. I left them over questions of the leader, their strategy and some irritation locally. Mainly, though, I left them because I wanted to be identified with a party which has managed to create a wide range of policies that envision a society with stewardship of the environment as our guiding principle.
My first vote was cast for a local Liberal when Joe Clark's government fell. Most of my family are still Liberals.
The attraction to the NDP for me was around social justice issues, particularly equality for gays and lesbians (going back to Human Rights Code amendments and the like). As the environment became more of a concern to me, the NDP's movements there seemed disingenuous or, at least, conditional on things such as placating labour unions. The attitude of the leader toward Elizabeth May really upset me (long before the debate issue) and I felt myself pulling away more.
New Democrats continue to warn me that this is not the Green Party of Europe; that we are much more 'conservative' (and yet I see Liberals and Conservatives on-line speaking about us as another 'leftie' party.) That makes us a pretty big tent if it's true!
Greens Draw from across the entire political spectrum
The Green Party pulls its' support from across the entire political spectrum, both into the party and as voters.
A research study in British Columbia asked Green Party voters how they would have voted if the party wasn’t running a candidate in their riding.
30% Disillusioned
Thirty percent said they would not have voted at all. In other words, they are so disillusioned and disenchanted with the old-line parties they wouldn’t have even participated in the election.
In the 2006 election more than 35% of Canadian voters didn't bother to cast a ballot -- some 8.2 million electors. By comparison the Conservatives won 5.2 million votes and the Liberals about 4.5 million. So almost as many electors did not vote as voted for the Cons and Libs (8.2 vs. 9.7). The Green Party now that it is going to be included in the leaders debate will get our message to millions of Canadians for the first time. So the Green Party pulls in more non-voters as a percentage of our support than any other party.
30% Center Right
Thirty per cent would have voted center-right. The Green Party is fiscally responsible. We wouldn't give $1.4 billion a year in subsidies to oil and gas interests (something supported by the Harper Conservatives and begun and practiced by Liberals for decades).
40% Center Left
Forty per cent of the Green Party's support comes from voters who say, if the Green Party wasn't running in their riding they'd vote centre left.
NDP Reaction to Carbon Tax
The NDP says that it supports the environment – but it opposes a carbon tax. This has led David Suzuki to slam the NDP. See David on YouTube http://technorati.com/videos/youtube.com%2Fwatch%3... Suzuki says: “I'm really shocked with the NDP on this because I had thought that the NDP had a very progressive environmental outlook on this and that astounds me.”
Perhaps we should call it a Carbon Fund – just like in Alberta they created the Heritage Fund based on taxing the windfall profits the oil industry in the early 1970s when the price of oil tripled in 18 months.
Summary
The Green Party draws pretty much equally from across the spectrum.
non-voters to gpc
"So the Green Party pulls in more non-voters as a percentage of our support than any other party." -- most important of all in these considerations
GOTV
We'll need to work on making sure these people can get to the polls on election day then.
--
My blog is www.abandonedstuff.com
ndp to gpc
it has been repeatedly noted by observation of many polls & poll trends that defections from all parties have contributed to green growth, all you have to do is show a chart or two & the point is easily made
but proportionally to their existing support ndp has been more affected
also i certainly do not "assume there is general support the [sic] NDP among Greens", that is why i wrote as i did
Respect for diversity in political parties
Thanks for the post, Jim. I think that your analysis makes a great deal of sense. We also saw some pretty negative stuff during the LNC by-election.
I would like to also emphasize, however, that my position, and I believe the overall position of the Green party, is to be inclusive of other political parties. I think that Jim's assessment is correct, that the NDP is feeling threatened by the Greens. However, there is still an important role for the NDP to play in Canadian politics, as advocates of their core values of democratic socialism (or the newer term, social democrat values). The issue here is not that we want them out of the game, but rather that we respect each other as representing different things ... even when they don't respect us.
During my campaign in 2006, we were reasonably fortunate to have a high level of respect during our candidate debates (most of the time, anyway!). And during these by-elections and the elections to come, we wish to demonstrate that we do politics differently. Therefore, it is incumbent on us to demonstrate that respect in our interactions with other parties. Let us take the high road, and win the election on the values that we represent.
Also, Daryl, in reference to your post above, I do not regard the statement "blowing past the NDP" as gleefully poking at the NDP. In this uncertain time where we are polling in the mid-teens across Canada and are STILL not guaranteed a voice in the leader's debate, I see this pronouncement as one of claiming legitimacy. We have been polling ahead of the BQ for some time, and now that we are overtaking the NDP (number-wise) in many provinces, I think it is quite appropriate to blow our own horns about it. I wish the NDP every success, but I wish for Green success first.
Jim Johnston,
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Opinions expressed are my own.
Interesting Reading but Same-old, Same-old
I JUST joined the Green Party after voting NDP for all of my voting life (I am now 63). So I am not "up" on all of the stats and "whose is bigger" stuff that I so abhor in any political party. Daryl Vernon touched upon one theme that I value. This is not about putting down other parties and blowing our horns (Gosh, I said "our"!). It is about the VISION and VALUES that lie behind the policies of the Green Party. I just read VISION GREEN, and that did it for me.
I got immersed in the NDP just as you folk (above) have become politically immersed in the Green Party and I found myself constantly focussed on polls, stats and trends, etc. I forgot the basics of a good organization. FIRST you establish your Values. Then you are ready to set some goals and objectives the work towards some MISSION and ultimately some VISION. All the rest is the same old political BS to me. I read most of what is written above and thought, "Am I making a mistake? Is this all about WINNING, rather than EMERGING?" From what I read, the Green Party has a whole new perspective on how to govern, not just the people, but the sacred environment of which we are stewards. The core values are what will draw people, like myself to the party, not listening to you politicians.
Here in BC, particularly in my riding, I met a leader called Huggette Beaudrin. She lives just on the outskirts of my little village of Lumby (population 1800 and rising)and I have watched her carefully for about 9 years since moving here. She is passionate and caring, not about winning or about putting down other parties, but by showing, through her actions, a deep concern for social justice at all levels, environmental issues, and both the working poor and the neglected middle class. She is a walking example of what is GOOD about the Green Party.
Like Christianity, you can be a good theologian, and have people sit is pews and navel gaize, feeling how wonderful their church is, or you can just go out and show care, love and concern for your fellow person through your actions. It doesn't really matter WHAT denomination you come from. If you are a person who reflects good values, vision and action, people will follow you. So I followed Hugette -right into the Green Party. I didn't even know who she was at first. She gave me the "Bible" - VISION GREEN, and I was sold on the Green Party as a party FOR the EARTH and the PEOPLE.
So please, lighten up, you old crocks. I know there is more to you all than pontification and demonizing other parties. We need to learn tolerance of other points of view and show how our perspective on the same object, brings some peace, contentment and understanding to those who wish to look. It is not about wrong and right, good or bad. It is about how we, as humans are going to handle our evolution - how we are going to evolve from this point on. More than that, it is about EMERGING - having a Vision (neither right or wrong) that reflects values that are consistent with the needs of people and the earth we care for.
From my neophyte position, EVERYONE should read VISION GREEN first. Then, as you debate policies and polls, never forget the values and understanding that is refelcted in this book of Vision statements. The Green Party will not win any POWER through trying to denounce other parties. It will win RESPECT by ensuring that people, such as myself, get an opportunity to review the core values of the party and realize that they echo our own yearnings. Can such a Vision be turned into a working Government? I don't really know. Perhaps our whole culture and society has to change its perspective first. I used to think that the GPC were a bunch of tree huggers. Tree-huggers are as useless as clear-cut developers. Both are in it for themselves, when it comes right down to it. People will walk over to the GPC (walk, not be dragged) when what they hear rings a resonance with what they feel they need as valued human beings. This may take some time, but it is vitally important for our Nation, just as it is for our world.
So, forgive me from crashing your party but I just had to share what it is like to be a new member, and what brought me in. None of what I read above made much of a difference to me. I had heard it all said in the NDP party. What made a difference was what one very fine Lady was DOING around me and the book that she shared with me. As simple as that.
Well Said!
Welcome Mr. Dave Bosomworth
Hear hear!
I will say in our own defense that as one does grab the reins and actually get in the ring and tackles the beast ....lest one be tackled...well ....yes...a lot is quickly forgotten.
We have been stomped pretty good ...some of us and I for one don't plan to continue taking it in the face
(I will be in the next fight like nemo in the Matrix movies and untouchable but its because I have been down in the ditch many times already before)
Myself yes with a possible law suit pending against some party ... I must confess to feeling a little yes...jaded towards the jack layton party these days as I still have a great fondness for my 30 years now wasted building the old party ...or as it was then called.... the ndp
Welcome Sir !
It was VISION GREEN that clinched it for me as well!
I and all of us needed you to say exactly what you just said...that's why this party works and why I like it so much better here .....actually.
Because for one ...you can speak to a group of the members instantly and not just be deleted or ignored like in the jack layton party...I think that point and what you have just said are terrific.
I look forward to your input.
"Its not easy being Green" yeah not with envy anyway ask jack
OK so I just had to... as you see the above is true for some of us .....still LOL
Cheers!
(disclaimer:do not be confused and think shavluk is the green party talking...hahha)
http://ridings.greenparty.ca/article285.html?&MMN_...
juror.ca
endprohibition@telus.net