Polling, Media and Where are the Greens?

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By Elizabeth May on 23 April 2011 - 1:20pm

I get a lot of people wondering about seeing Greens at 4%, or lower.  It is hard for Canadians to know that those numbers are from polling companies that sometimes don't ask voters if they plan to vote for the Greens.  In other words, these numbers are the same as pre-writ.  It is only 4-5% of people who will say when asked “do you plan to vote Conservative, Liberal, or NDP?” --  “I plan to vote Green!”

So where are we in those polls that actually ask about Greens? The last one was EKOS for the week of April 21.  We are down a bit over the pre-writ levels of 10%+ at 7.8%.  No surprise given that the mainstream national media has not provided anything approaching equitable coverage.  Not only did the TV media executives, “The Consortium,” decide Greens did not belong in the Leaders’ Debate, they decided to keep our platform launch off the news, ignore the national leader’s tour (inconvenient to mention it once they announced we had no national tour), and neglect to mention our existence 90% of the time.

What is impressive is that those numbers – 7.8% -- reflect a higher level of support than in 2008.  And higher than the Bloc.

Now is the time to get the word out, anyway you can, that the Greens are holding on to 2008 support and building.   The constant repetition of low (irrelevant) poll numbers could lead Green voters to be discouraged.

Meanwhile, the news is good to encourage Green voters.  The EKOS seat count projections show the Conservatives losing seats.  There is no longer ANY prospect of a Conservative majority.  EKOS sees Conservatives dropping from 143 seats to 134.  Liberals and NDP seat count goes up.  And we are in striking distance of several seats (acknowledged by EKOS text, but not included in their seat count). The closest riding is here in Saanich-Gulf Islands, where Gary Lunn and I are in a race that is too close to call.

Please use Facebook, Twitter, and email to alert your friends that polling companies' methods often skew results away from the Greens.  Encourage friends to check out our policies on our website.  The Young Greens are mobilizing outside mainstream media and we have to do the same thing.  We are TEN days from E-Day.  May 2 can be a real “May Day” with your help.   

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Nanos response

Submitted by Constantine Kri... on 25 April 2011 - 4:21pm.

I asked Nick Nanos if his firm prompts for the GPC and he said:

** Hi,

 Thanks for the note.  We actually do not prompt for any of the parties so it is a completely even playing field in terms of the research.

 Cheers,

NJN

 Nikita James Nanos FMRIA, CMRP            

President & CEO, NANOS RESEARCH

Research Associate Professor, UB-The State University of New York**

Constantine Kritsonis

The voting booth does prompt for all parties

Submitted by Ard Van Leeuwen on 30 April 2011 - 11:09am.

I strongly suspect that if you were to prompt for, say, Cons/Libs/NDP/Bloc/Green in a poll the Greens would come out with a much better result than if you prompted for none of the parties like Nanos does. So, it's not a completely even playing field as Nanos suggests, especially because many people don't think Green is a legitimate choice. After all, we have no MPs and were excluded from the debates. People who don't follow politics closely might be left to conclude there is something illegitimate about the GPC.

I hope/trust that at the ballot box at least, briefly we will appear equal with all the other parties because the Green Party will be on the menu when voters put their x next to Cons/Libs/NDP/Bloc/Green and other parties running in particular ridings. In effect, the ballot box does prompt for all parties, unlike Nanos.

Ard Van Leeuwen (Dufferin-Caledon, ON)

The views I express on this blog are purely my own and should not be construed to represent the official position of the Green Party of Canada.

Go greens Go!

Submitted by Sarah Hutchinson on 25 April 2011 - 9:11pm.

Just a note to any candidates or campaign teams: YOU ARE AWESOME!  YOU are the Green Party!  YOU are our grandchildren's hope.  YOU bring light and humanity and humility and humour back into the political discourse all around the world.   I know you're feeling tuckered out, but now is the time for the final push: knocking on doors, showing up on local radio station's doorsteps for an impromptu interview, walking around handing out freebies.  Have fun with it, and be proud!    

Sarah Hutchinson Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing